27 July 2010
Attabad lake level is rising again. It is clear that temperature is the key control at present.
Posted by Dave Petley
The lake level at Attabad is rising again – the latest NDMA report suggests that the level has increased by 19 inches (41 cm) in the last 24 hours:
It is now clear that the lake level is controlled primarily by local environmental conditions (which in turn are changing the inflow), rather than the spillway properties. Compare the following two graphs. The first is the lake level through July to date:
The second is the Pakmet hydrograph for the same period for Besham, which is much further down the Hunza valley:
The similarity in patterns is not because Attabad is controlling the flow at Besham (the Attabad discharge is just a fraction of that at Besham) – the similar patterns are because the flow at Besham is being controlled by air temperature (i.e. the rate of melt on the snowfields and icecaps), as is the flow, and hence the lake level, at Attabad.
Regular commenter BeforeGoreKneel kindly pointed out that temperature graphs are available online here too. The temperature graph for Gilgit is as follows:
The role that temperature is playing in controlling this system is clear.
Meanwhile, it is still not clear as to whether the Frontier Works Organisation (army) has started their operations to lower the lake.
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
I am not sure how recent some of these are but there is a fantasic video of a helicopter flying over the spillway which gives a good viewhttp://blog.travel-culture.com/2010/07/27/attaabad-lake-spillway-hunza-valley-wmv/
Regional Programme Manger FOCUS, Mr. Rahim Rajput died in the Islamabad air crash today.So sad.Husain
abacusman:That video was posted on Youtube a month ago.
There is massive rains in Gilgit/Hunza and flash floods at number of places.How will this affect Attabad?This is front page news in largest circulation english daily of Pakistanhttp://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/front-page/extensive-damage-by-flood-in-ajk,-gb-070
May God Bless Mr. Rahim Rajput.
I believe that NDMA and the Government of GB are waiting for the reports from the three foreign experts before taking the next step and decision on the fate of this lake. In my view, you need to consider the fact that this slide is unique in nature and experience with landslides in other parts of the world will not help in predicting the behavior of this lake. A totally independent judgment needs to be made on the basis of a scientific analysis of the stability. It would be essential to complete ranging and determining the inconsistencies in the entire cross section through one of the latest techniques used by exploratory agencies such as OGDC in the shattered mountain barrier that has blocked the river. FWO has certainly attempted to achieve the targets according to the work plan but they were hampered by this solid stone wall and go to the depth of 24 meters instead of 30 originally conceived.