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20 November 2017

Everyone Fights Confirmation Bias, but Science Teaches You How To Win the Battle.

Read the comments on any news story, and you get a free lesson on confirmation bias. This error in thinking strangles our ability to analyse information and make rational decisions. Doctors see it in patients that refuse vaccines for their children and waste money on homoeopathic sugar water in fancy bottles. Vitamin salesman, astrologers, and naturopaths rely on it for a living. It’s also responsible for the anger (rather than the thanks) …

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14 November 2017

Attribution Study Shows Hurricane Harvey Floods Becoming Much More Likely

Check out this paper in PNAS today. When the subject of hurricane experts comes up, there are two names that come into the mind of nearly every meteorologist: Kerry Emanuel and Chris Landsea. There are a lot of others, but these two have published a lot of research that gets sourced frequently. Today Kerry Emanuel has what can be called an attribution study on Hurricane Harvey. These studies look at how …

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8 November 2017

Millions Along the Eastern Seaboard Will See Antares Launch Saturday

The Antares rocket will launch from NASA Wallops Island at 7:37 AM Saturday to bring supplies to the International Space Station. The weather will be clear and cold across the entire NE U.S. and the launch should be visible all the way into New England and as far south as South Carolina’s beaches. The low sun angle should light up the vapor trail of the rocket as it climbs into …

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3 November 2017

New Climate Report- Humans Are Warming The Planet; There’s No Convincing Evidence for ANY Other Cause

  The 4th U.S. Climate Assessment is HERE. A summary is here. Here are some key findings. I want to highlight what I think is the key finding: This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no …

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Twitter is Chem-trail Central

We’ve reached a sad state when this explanation needs to be written at the beginning of a scientific paper: Introduction The story goes like this: tens of thousands of commercial airliners a day are deliberately spraying some kind of mixture of toxic chemicals—either across the United States or possibly globally—in what would amount to one of the largest covert operations ever. The scheme has been going on for years, perhaps …

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2 November 2017

Here’s What I Think Is Cool

I came into work and got a real surprise today. Then the news anchors surprised me again (See video below). Big thanks to Matthew Cappucci for writing such a great story and I’m honored to be included in his seven coolest broadcast meteorologists. Perhaps even more so since I have gray hair! Matthew will soon be Harvard’s FIRST meteorology grad by the way, and that’s what I’d call really cool!  I actually had …

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27 October 2017

The Important Weather Satellite You Haven’t Heard Of

The satellite images you see on TV every day are usually from the new GOES-16 which is way up there, at a tenth of the distance to the Moon! But there are other weather satellites you probably don’t know about in polar orbit that are just as important. These satellites have instruments that can measure winds/ temperatures and moisture at many different levels as they fly over the poles, and …

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17 October 2017

Weird, Wild Weather In Europe: Saharan Dust in Moscow and Portugal Smoke in Finland

Thanks to other NASA satellites and the NASA GEOS 5 model, you can see where the smoke is and where the Saharan dust is. Note that it originates from the fires in Portugal where the dust is from empty wastes of the Sahara. All of this was pulled northward as it was caught up in the circulation around Ophelia. Ophelia reached category 3 status and now holds the record for …

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16 October 2017

UK and Ireland Smacked Hard By Ophelia

My close friends in Wales report the “wheely bins” are all over the place. The obs at Dublin airport show winds have gusted to right at 60 mph during the afternoon and evening, and on Anglesey, in Wales the winds reach 65 mph! Here is a view fo the storm from the Meteosat (ctsy Univ. of Dundee’s downlink station). FYI: Ophelia is no longer a hurricane. As it moved over the much …

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12 October 2017

Roger Rabbit’s No Longer Running Accuwx. Now He’s Going to Run NOAA

This: … and my response, (written in 2013) when Accuwx started selling snake oil 45-day weather forecasts. Click here to read the post from 2013. This is not going to go over very well inside NOAA and that may be the greatest understatement of the year.

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