13 December 2013
Killing off the Canary Islands landslide megatsunami scare
Posted by Dave Petley
For those of us working on and researching natural hazards, one topic repeatedly comes up at social events. The conversation usually goes like this:
New Acquaintance: “So what do you do?”
Me: “I research natural hazards, and in particular landslides”
NA: “Oh – is it true that one of the Canary Islands volcanoes is going to collapse in a giant landslide? I was told that it’ll cause a tsunami that’ll devastate the coasts of Europe and America”
Me: “Excuse me – I’m just going to bang my head on the table…” [thump!]
The question of course refers to a scare a few years ago, based on a peer-reviewed paper, that a flank collapse of Cumbre Vieja volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands could collapse, generating a megatsunami that would initially be about 1,000 metres high, and would still be about 50 metres high when it reached for example the eastern seaboard of the USA (Wikipedia has quite a nice article on megatsunamis if you are interested). It is fair to say that in my experience there is agreement that such a flank collapse could occur (and there is lots of evidence that such events have happened in the past), but the level of support for the megatsunami hypothesis is, shall we say, somewhat lacking within the scientific community. There is a nice evaluation of the work by Dr George Pararas-Carayannis, which concludes that:
“The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated. No mega tsunamis can be expected”
A key issue here is the mechanics of the landslide. To generate a very large tsunami, this slide would have to happen very fast and as an essentially coherent block. Remember that this is a landslide of 500 cubic kilometres – we do not think that very, very large landslides usually behave like this. The chances are that a collapse would occur in stages over a longer time period, which would generate a much smaller wave. Most scientists recognise that the single, intact block collapsing very fast idea is theoretically possible, but that it is the extreme end-member of a wide range of scenarios, and thus is highly unlikely. There are other issues too (like where are the tsunami deposits from other megatsunamis given that we know that previous collapses have occurred? A tsunami on this scale should leave deposits that would be very easy to map). Unfortunately, although most landslide scientists view the likelihood of a single coherent landslide as being very low, the actual evidence to support that view in the case of these types of landslides has not been strong..
Unfortunately, despite these rebuttals the story has had remarkable traction. Take this page on Virgin Media for example, which has this wonderful (?) image:
http://www.virginmedia.com/science-nature/natural-world/natural-disasters-waiting-to-happen.php
And text that says:
“A colossal wave caused by a chunk of rock the size of the Isle of Man breaking off La Palma in the Canary Islands, will one day devastate Southern Europe and the entire East coast of America. Scientists believe this disaster is already way overdue. When it does come, it will cause a mega tsunami that will hit with the power of an atomic bomb travelling at the speed of a jumbo jet. Starting off at 2000ft, the giant wave will still be 150ft high by the time it reaches the other side of the Atlantic, destroying everything in its wake and affecting up to 100 million people.”
Given the ridiculousness of this sort of statement (and there are worse examples out there), it is good to see a new paper that erodes the case for the megatsunami still further. This paper, Hunt et al. (2013) has just been published in the journal Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (sadly the article is behind a paywall). The paper presents a very detailed analysis of the deposits left on the sea floor by Canary Island flank collapses. The research is meticulous and comprehensive. The authors note that the sea floor deposits record eight volcanic flank collapse events, the largest of which was about 350 cubic kilometres. However, the key element is that each deposit is formed from a series of subunits, each of which can be clearly differentiated from other subunits based on the geochemistry of the materials that they contain. So, the interpretation by the authors, which sounds very sensible to me, is that each subunit represents a different phase of the collapse event. In other words, each of these major collapses did not occur as a single, coherent block, but as a series of sections one after the other. If you want an analogy, then what better example than the famous 1993 Pantai Remis landslide in Malaysia:
The implications are clear. Previous flank collapses have occurred as a series of distinct events rather than as a single coherent block. Each of these could have been able to generate a very large wave, and even a local tsunami. However, they would not have generated a megatsunami. There is no reason to believe that a future event will behave differently, so this scare should be consigned to the garbage can once and for all.
Reference
J.E. Hunt, R.B. Wynn, P.J. Talling, & D.G. Masson (2013). Multistage collapse of eight western Canary Island landslides in the last 1.5 Ma: Sedimentological and geochemical evidence from subunits in submarine flow deposits Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 14 (7), 2159-2181 DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20138
Dave Petley is the Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation) at the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom. His blog provides a commentary on landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
Thank you Dr. Dave! I have at last found one sin I am not guilty of – I have never asked anyone, let alone a researcher in natural hazards, about the potential for a Canary Island volcano causing a collapse and tsunami.
WHEW.
I particularly love that the new article image is an uncredited screen capture from Deep Impact, where an asteroid generates a tsunami that devastates New York. (http://spacemika.com/blog/2011/03/23/the-tsunami-of-deep-impact/)
Im confused how you can claim to debunk the Canary Islands Mega-Tsunami theory without looking at ANY of the data they used to come up with the theory? You didnt touch the 1980’s eruption of Mt St Helens that proves that landslides in this magnitude do happen, or the 1958 Lituya Bay event that proved that mega tsunamis from landslides are a fact.. all you did is find a landslide that didn’t happen all at once and said that giant landslides aren’t common, does that make it not possible? The Malaysian land slide doesn’t seem to be on the slope of a active volcano that already has a Two mile long crack long the ridge of it. Im sorry but this just proves you’re bad at contrasting and comparing two separate geological events..
[Nonsense. Mt St Helens was more than an order of magnitude smaller than the event being hypthesised here. The 1958 Lituya Bay landslide tsunami was definitely not a mega-tsunami – it was large simply because it was in a very confined fjord. If these types of mega-tsunamis occur in the Atlantic basin then we should find deposits from them all the way along the coasts. We don’t! D]
I still have to say inconclusive, not enough to dis-prove anything.. we are talking about a 2 mile crack at the top of this mountain, if not a geological event perhaps a mega slide due to explosives from one of the MANY groups that hate the US? But I do feel the information that it might not be the ticking time bomb it was originally thought is very plauasble and should be known.. i have no issue with your data.. i just think either scenario is still likely.. I hope for all of our sakes that you are right on this one..
AS far as finding the deposits, that just means the last mega tsunami was a REALLY REALLY long time ago, still dont disprove the possibility..
[No. If scientists are to propose a hypothesis like this then it is up to them to show that it is credible. They have failed to do so in this case, in my view. D]
Nice job of explaining the issues with the ‘mega-tsunami.’ Just a couple of thoughts, while having no geological evidence doesn’t mean that an ocean spanning mega-tsunami isn’t possible, It does imply that the conditions needed to have one are extremely rare. I also wonder why (I assume it’s the Day, et al. 1999 paper) the authors decided to only model a single slab collapse. Of course it was 1999, so there likely limitations on the model capabilities.
Finally, totally spot on about mega-tsunami’s only happening in a confined body of water. You can’t extrapolate out to an ocean of water where wave energy can dissipate.
maybe just a rename of the post, cuz for me and perhaps many other readers, this information didn’t kill the mega-tsunami theory, just added more data that deserves to be added to the equation..
Science can only prove so much because our observations are so limited.. remember that..
[I have no intention of renaming the post. D]
Thanks for “the other side” of the story. I just learned about La Palma from a 2009 BBC show called “The World’s Worst Disasters,” which left the impression that the western side of the island was almost certain to fall “en masse” during the next volcanic eruption, which they suggested was now overdue after the last event in 1971. I’m glad to read that many scientists don’t believe in the threat. Still, as a layperson who lives on the east coast of America, I am not completely reassured when scientists speak of a “very low” chance of such an event happening. Science has a long and embarrassing history of being “certain” about things that turned out to be far less certain than scientists had imagined.
I’m not saying that science should therefore take into account any lamebrain theory, but if the probability of a truly cataclysmic event is merely small (and moreover if there are at least some reputable scientists who believe in the threat) then surely it’s prudent to consider what we can do to make even that disputed and small possibility of disaster disappear.
And to do that (to remove even the outside chance of what, after all, would be “the mother of all catastrophes”), I would suggest a methodical, step by step, dismantling of the western wall of the mountain. Surely this is doable. Coal companies routinely tear down entire mountains in the States. Shouldn’t we consider slicing layers off the top of the western slope until there is not even the outside chance that the entire East Coast will be obliterated by a sudden collapse?
There’s another reason to move ahead with such a project. As Anthony mentioned in his post, certain anti-American groups might eventually have their own ideas about testing the “collapse hypothesis” in a very practical and potentially devastating way. Shouldn’t the U.S. intervene now with the Army Corps of Engineers to beat the terrorists to the punch by “slicing the western wall down to size,” thereby removing even a small chance of cataclysm?
Indeed, there’s a third reason to move ahead: Canary Islands tourism. Who wants to vacation on ground zero of a potential volcanic Armageddon?
PS I don’t want to add to the sense of panic, but the 2009 BBC documentary failed to mention (or “exploit,” if you prefer) one of the most horrifying aspects of the potential catastrophe that they describe: A tsunami of the size that they envision would turn every single east coast nuclear reactor into another Fukushima!
[This would mean the removal of several cubic kilometres of rock, which is not practicable. This landslide is so large that it is beyond the scope of any human to trigger it short of using a large nuclear weapon. A few tonnes of TNT would not have any effect, so terrorists pose no threat. There are far more serious things to worry about, such as human induced climate change. D]
You seemed to be a reputable scientist, until you started with the AGW nonsense. Credibility shot to hell. Smart move.
[Yawn. D.]
“According to intelligence sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin also thwarted an attempt by unnamed perpetrators [Left-Wing Bolshevik Russian Mobsters] to detonate a nuclear bomb concealed in a cargo ship in the vicinity of the Cumbre Vieja in Canary Islands which was intended to cause a massive landslide into the ocean to produce a correspondingly huge tsunami that would have inundated the eastern seaboard of the U.S.”
“According to intelligence sources, Russian President Vladimir Putin also thwarted an attempt by unnamed perpetrators [Left-Wing Bolshevik Russian Mobsters] to detonate a nuclear bomb concealed in a cargo ship in the vicinity of the Cumbre Vieja in Canary Islands which was intended to cause a massive landslide into the ocean to produce a correspondingly huge tsunami that would have inundated the eastern seaboard of the U.S.”
It’s happening right now, there are little seismic quakes occurring. What say you now?
[The seismic events are at a depth of 25+ km, so definitely not associated with the alleged landslide. This is an active volcano, so seismic events are to be expected. D.]
Not going to happen, God promises to never destroy humanity again by water.
[Hmmmm. D.]
He doesn’t need to. He has the climate change. Would he punish for destroying his creation work, ignoring all the warnings for so many years.
I’m taking my family to Tenerife this week and wanted to check up on this story. Your blog post has reassured me and you seem to be a man who knows his onions from his carrots so I’m now a lot happier about the holiday. Thank you for taking the time to put this ‘event’ into perspective.
I was planning on taking my snorkel out with me at night-time but now it seems like this won’t be needed …. 🙂
[Good, in terms of your holiday there is absolutely no reason to believe that there is any significant risk from this type of event. D.]
I usually holiday in Florida or Tenerife. So given the recent tremors in Tenerife I was thinking going to Florida for winter rather than Tenerife. Then I remembered the Tenerife generated tsunami stories and how flat Florida is! Hadn’t been aware of the Las Palmas tsunami “risk” . Anyway I found your article interesting. Though I guess 1500 ft up Tenerife we’d be safe even if a La Palma mega Tsunami occurred! Though knowing my luck Teide would erupt at the same time….
[ 🙂 I think that you are more likely to be injured riding a donkey on the beach! D.]
Just look at Mt. St. Helens. Of course they’re unlikely, but they still happen. Mt. St. Helens is all the proof we need to see this does happen – and if it happened near water it’d be catastrophic (exactly like La Palma).
[This is a straw man argument. No-one is denying that volcanic flanks can collapse. Or that large collapses can generate a tsunami. The question is whether there is any likelihood that this particular volcanic flank can collapse in the specific way that this model implies. It is not impossible, but it is very, very unlikely. I might get hit by an asteroid tomorrow. That happens. But it is very, very unlikely. D.]
In the case Fogo Tsunami they found evidence for mega-tsunami on the neigbouring irland, deposits of rocks…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7AwUgU84cw
[Very localised, very large tsunami events are undoubtedly associated with large landslides. That is not in doubt. D.]
Greetings:
No one event alone will cause the “East Coast Tsunami.” A cataclysmic chain reaction involving several earthquakes, the release of massive water reservoirs in glaciers at both poles, and numerous coastal landslides will all culminate in the devastation.
[Goodness, I will need a very large cup of tea at the end of all that. D.].
Exactly as Steve says. Mother nature or Mother Earth hears the cries of Mother’s and their children crying at being separated by authorities and worst kidnappers and since Nature is a Mother is becoming enraged and as you all see the global warming and earthquake activities it will most likely happen around December 12 of this year or within 6 months by Mother Nature HERSELF at all the separation of Mother’s and their babies that unless the children are returned as soon as possible to all the Mothers Mother Nature HERSELF will begin destroying this Earth. Feel Her shudder! The only hope this Earth has if babies are returned and protected. Not only will this disaster happen but will be the first as a warning to return the babies to their mothers if they are not it will set off all the other mega catastrophes. Be warned.
[Goodness, that sounds very scary. Good thing its happening on a Wednesday so that it doesn’t ruin the weekend. D.]
Yes well Dave, if you live in Sheffield then you are only a stone’s throw from Harrogate, which is where the UK Govt. will relocate to in the event of any Terminal Tidal Event, and any fule knos this because it was in “The Kraken Wakes” which is about verrrrrrry slow tsunamis, which were caused by aliens, not volcano flank collapse, but they are in the same ball park
A most interesting article! None of which has reached the media since 2013 as far as I can see, but you would probably have to adorn it with strippers and zombies doing a reality dancing class in an artisan bakery for that to happen.
An east coast megatsunami is unlikely, but what about a “regular” (e.g. 5 m) east coast tsunami, capable of killing people in New York and Miami?
So how large do you think a tsunami will be when it reaches FL if the Volcano did have a flank eruption that caused a tsunami? I have heard from a Geophysicist friend of my fathers if it were to happen it would be 26m high which is 85 feet or ten stories. That would reach at least ten miles inland here in FL. I live six miles inland from the Atlantic. My parents live fifty miles inland. My father is a man of science being a Ceramic Engineer. He thinks something COULD happen and his Geophysicist friend said there is a 2% chance in 200 years.
3,650,000th of a chance on a daily basis. So COULD is a key word. Do you think that sounds about right? Thank you for this article too. I think people need to realize a lot of things COULD happen but they need to pay attention to statistics.The statistics of some of the asteroids flying by and striking our planet have a higher percentage of probability than this Canary Island Mega Tsunami. Just look at the online NASA charts. Fear is a killer of dreams and dreams are what has taken us to such great heights already. There is also a higher percentage of probability for a plane to crash on top of you or for a lightening strike as well. Especially in FL!
Here’s the issue with saying that this cannot occur. 11,700 years ago, the last ice age ended. There was at least 2 miles thick glaciers all over the northern hemisphere or Canada in a portion of the United States. Also over New York City. Because of the water tied up in the huge glaciers of that time the sea level was different. The shorelines in some cases were over hundreds of miles out into the ocean compared to what they are today. So the shoreline of that time, would now be under water. So finding remnants of a tsunami that occurred before the end of the last Glacier age would be next to Impossible. Shorelines where the glaciers were would not record remnants of a tsunami because of the height of the glaciers and if it did the melting of the glaciers would wash the remnants out to sea.
Making a blanket statement that this could not occur and then backing it up with the fact that most landslides from volcanoes on Islands are so much smaller because they occur in a sequential order is not looking at what has happened before the end of the last ice age. This is true because those remnants now would be physically impossible to find.
But what we can take away from this conversation is that this is not likely to occur in any of our lifetimes. Furthermore, it’s not likely to occur in the lifetime’s of the next 20 or 30 Generations. Maybe it’s not likely to occur in a much longer time span than that looking at time and probability.
So statistically we’re very safe. But the fact remains it’s possible such a situation could happen. It is just not probable. There are much larger, more dangerous, more probable disasters to mankind than this that we need to pay much attention to. And saying that this could occur in the near future is merely sensationalism that mankind just doesn’t need.
But to say that it cannot happen is refusing to look and evidence to the contrary. Saying it will not happen is a probabilistic certainly. So the scientists that have made the statement are safe because the statistics will prove them correct with a probabilistic certainty. But it is a scientific step too far to say it cannot happen.
[First, I did not say it could not occur. Indeed, I said that it was possible:- “Most scientists recognise that the single, intact block collapsing very fast idea is theoretically possible, but that it is the extreme end-member of a wide range of scenarios, and thus is highly unlikely.” In other words, just as you argue, statistically possible, but extremely unlikely. You also forget that a large part of the Atlantic basin was not glaciated, so the remains will not have been removed. Whilst those deposits might have been buried, as far as I am aware drilling programmes have found a Quaternary mega-tsunami deposit around the Atlantic Basin, as would be the case in such an event.
My position remains that of most of the landslide and tsunami community – this hypothesis is an end member, extreme scenario that is very improbable, and even then may well not act as the original authors described. Thus, n my view, it continues to be right to argue that we should not worry about this type of event. There are plenty of other things about which we should fret. D.]
Could a single, intact block flank collapse of Cumbre Vieja be triggered by a nuclear weapon, say from Russia’s Status-6 nuclear-powered “Kanyon” drone, armed with a 100 megaton “torpedo”?
I am a scientist, Astronomy and Geology. Living on the Gulf Coast of the US at an elevation of 43 feet I have looked about for predictions of this tsunami and its effects west of the Mississippi delta. I have found none but did find this article. Well written and NEVER said NEVER, but just said there were other things that were more worrisome. I am 82 and expect to live to 191 but I doubt I will see the tsunami in Corpus Christi TX.
Mega-tsunami landslides have definitely happened.
See Storegga Slide:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storegga_Slide
[No-one denies the existence of tsunami, nor of landslide-induced tsunami. There are many other examples beyond Storegga. The question is whether the slope failure being postulated here can a. happen in the way that is described (answer: yes, but very, very unlikely) and b. can generate a tsunami that would be many metres high along substantial stretches of the N. Atlantic coastline (answer: almost certainly no). The mega-tsunami hypothesis is not absolutely impossible, it’s just extremely improbable. D.]
Wow. I’m in the company of very intelligent people. Thanks the answers
That’s good to know, thank you
What sort of wave would a lesser collapse cause?
Could that reach the UK on its northern extent?
This article was so bad, that I came back from the ER because of a concussion I got from banging my head as a Pavlovian response to self-proclaimed “experts” who were given degrees they didn’t deserve.
Now that I’m back, let me kill-off this “kill-off” by explaining that the exact canary island megatsunami scenario has literally happened in geologic history multiple times. A perfect example of this is when the northern portion of the volcano of the Hawaiian island of Molokai collapsed 1.5 million years ago, causing a megatsunami that started over 600 meters tall and it even reached California and Mexico (sound familiar?). Even in 1980, it was proven before our very eyes that gigantic collapses from volcanic eruptions can happen.
In actuality, this idea is hardly shot down; maybe it’s not the likely scenario that is to occur, but it’s hardly off the table. If a volcanic collapse of an entire flank WERE to occur, than yes, we could be looking at something catastrophic coming across the Atlantic, this scenario of megatsunamis crossing entire oceans has happened before, sometimes in the forms of asteroid impacts, other times from this exact hypothesis-a volcanically active island. The fact that this exact scenario has already happened multiple times in Earth’s history shoots down your shootdown, all you’ve illustrated is an alternative with a higher likelihood.
[Sigh! d.]
I live on the east coast of the USA and in the current state of affairs I think that someone should grab a pry bar and give it a hand. At least a tsunami “which isn’t going to happen either way” would be less stressful nor as destructive as having a psychopathic malignant narcissist as POTUS. God PLEASE get that guy and his cronies in the cataclysmic event if ya send it this way. Point being the current US President “I didn’t vote for him btw” is FAR more dangerous than any landslides that may happen. Focus on the real danger if you live in the USA the PSYCHOPATH IN THE WHITE HOUSE. Great analysis on the evidence of the flank collapse mega-tsunami BS.
I have to agree with some of the statements here. Calling the notion ridiculousness or saying it won’t happen is pure folly, perhaps even stupidity. There is enough evidence of such events occurring over time around the world that we know they DO occur. When dealing with such an event, it delves into the realm of chaos catastrophic failures. Discrete sections may fail before others. Or you can have one failure trigger the next and the next and the next and suddenly it all comes down at once. For example look at Aloha Airlines Boeing 737 that lost part of the roof/fuselage in flight. If someone had said prior to the event that a plane could suddenly lose such a huge section of plane in flight they would have called that a ridiculousness notion. But the micro-fractures in the structure resulted that when one point failed, the stress spread out from the failure point causing more failures, and more, until rip the whole top popped off. This same process occurs in power systems like the late 60’s blackout on the US NE. One major line failed, and the power tried to flow to another path overloading more lines, leading to power flowing to more areas and more failures until the system crashed. Catastrophic failures do occur in nature, have been shown to occur. And to ignore that chance and dismiss it is merely the ostrich sticking the head in the sand and ignoring reality. Of course perhaps the writer needs to take this view to get the position he has, as if the UK had to prepare for such an eventuality well the cost would be huge. So better to stick your head in the sand rather than deal with what might be I guess.
Who really cares says … the psychopath in the White House (2020)
yeah the one that restored the economy, secured the border, brought business back,
got us out of horrible international agreements, reached out for peace.
Yeah. Bidens really fixing all his mistakes now aint he.
Idiot
Amen!
Far from perfect, but hilarious to see the screeching libs who considered DT worse than a megatsunami.
Interesting blog post given the current on going eruption.
So from a scientific point of view, evidence, hypothesis and theories, tsunamis bigger than the 2012 Japanese event or the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami are not possible? And Landslides can not and have not caused big tsunami over geological time of earth’s existence?
“Dr George Pararas-Carayannis, which concludes that:”
“The threat of mega tsunami generation from collapses of oceanic island stratovolcanoes has been greatly overstated.
No mega tsunamis can be expected”
Well that is the final scientific fact on so called “mega tsunamis” in earth’s geological time.
I still remember when after survey and analysis by the government scientists applying science said my home and my neighbors homes only had a 1% chance of flooding in 100 years. So very rare!
And I don’t think I will live a 100 years.
It seemed reasonable since we live more than 12 miles from the ocean.
But then with in a couple years my home flooded from a tropical storm and my neighbors home has flooded 4 times.
And if you are a scientists I would love to sell you my home in the mid Atlantic region.
There is only a 1% chance of my home flooding in 100 years, probably not in your lifetime, it is so rare based on previous statistical history.
Oh yes, it comes with personal flotation devices also known as life preservers and a training tape on “man overboard ” drill.
So when a scientists tells me I can go to bed tonight and not worry about such a rare geological event such as a tsunami from a Landslide, that scientists should buy my 2 story, 2 car garage, in-ground swimming pool, extended den, sun room over looking the pool, big yard, home.
I am going to use my experience and common sense and move inland to higher ground.
Good luck everyone.
Hope you find happiness.
Check.. Steve,
Hoping for the best….
Is this the volcano now erupting? What does that (will that do) to our changes?
What thus a higher see level does and will do to our changes?
I stumbled across this page after the Cumbra Viaje eruption began today. I am surprised the original author of this piece did not revisit, update, and revise the matter after the 22 December 2018 “Sunda Strait” tsunami. Granted, that tsunami took place within said straits, which contained the wave energy to a relatively closer and smaller area than, let us say, the continents around the Atlantic Ocean. However, this tsunami was caused by a flank failure, of a volcano, in the open ocean – just like the possible scenarios of Cumbra Viaje – and therefore a better example of what can happen.
Regardless of La Palma tsunami size, its worst U.S. effect probably would be through the increasingly constricted Long lsland Sound (between LI and Westchester County), which continues as the East River.
Why are so many people so emotionally invested in the idea of a La Palma megatsunami in the first place? It sounds like they WANT this to happen.
I think it was in Alaska that a landslide or the stuff, which broke off to the ocean caused a 500m high tsunami not long ago.
And there are known huge hundreds of meter waves out there.
Anyway if you CAN move I land or higher ground do, why would you NOT do it?
Because it would teach the states a lesson I guess as devastating as it would be.
Scientists can say as much as they like but Mother Nature is in control not Phd’s.
All bets are on….
America “helps” the EGD?
or
China “helps” La Palma?
Sorry “3GD” (Three Gorges Dam).
Unfortunately, any benefit I got from reading this article was quickly undone from reading the comments…but thanks for the effort.
I watch the news and think which PhD is right then I think we won’t know unless the unthinkable happens and it does drop. Has it happened yes can we prove it happened yes. But will it happen is as another writer said is in mother natures hands and lady can be a real B. I have been atop that ridge and I have walked that crack been back there a couple of times and it was always getting bigger and when it’s ready it will go how much will drop is unknow will this current eruption set it off it’s possible its possible it could collapse back into itself if the magma chamber collapses or it could go and do a Mount St Helens on us and that would wake every one up in a hurry. Oh and not to be upstaged Mount Etna is putting on a show with a 9000mtr ash column. So as always with mother nature we mere humans sit back and say wow!
Are we seeing the start of this island flank collapsing into the sea due to the volcanic actions of recent days on La Palma? I watched a few programes on TV some years ago about the island splitting in two and the possibility of a mega sunami and from what I have heard from people who have visited this crack in the island many times have told me that year by year the crack gets wider and you can visibly see this, your scentific comments please.
[I have visited the site (before the eruption) – there was little evidence of substantial ongoing deformation across the scarp at that time.
The deformation monitoring at the site does not show downslope movement of the flank – see for example: https://twitter.com/involcan/status/1442082260711317505 Thus, it does not seem likely that the flank is destabilising. The most likely explanation for the small rock slope failures that have been photographed is that the ongoing seismic activity is triggering isolated failures. These are unlikely to indicate that a larger-scale failure is under development. D]
What if you’re wrong.
What if the flank, more than one, collapses had already happened combined with increased geothermic flows and increased geo centric vibrations, a metaphor for the thinking here.
Just 20 years ago, G.bush, citation as read report form Exxon climate change was not a threat and how and why he made his decisions, disasters. as to why climate change was unreal,. Can you conclusively prove your case now if not show the scenarios.
May I ask anyone viewing this to have a look at the reasoning that dismisses a single flank collapse, You will find that it is most unlikely due to that it has not happed before on previous flank collapses in the canaries,
Now look for sea bed maps of the canneries and take a look for yourself or even better make some rough model shapes in sand and destabilise them till they collapse (the shape of la palma above and below sea level I believe to be very relevant).
I now believe that it is more than a chance that if the flank collapses” it will be a catastrophic whole single flank slide.
I am no expert but I can research and use logic, and just because there is no recent evidence something has not happened before” that does not factually prove it will not happen.
Previous Scientific articles have discounted a flank collapse due to inactivity and that is now not the case too.
I think it that when a slide event does happen any time in the future (more likely around an eruption of some sort) it will all depend on, where it starts,’the geology/changing internal and external structure of la Palma that will be crucial to how it plays out.
Thanks for your comment, but that is simply not the reason for the rebuttal of the mega-tsunami case. There are multiple reasons why this is not considered likely. I do not think it’s true to say that scientific studies have discounted a flank collapse because of a lack of activity. It has long been known that CV remains active and would erupt again. D.
Just to update this thread, we now have La Palma with a new Delta, 38 hectares and growing, which is said possibly about to break off into the ocean. Total lava flow right now covers 480 hectares. So, experts? If 38 +hectares breaks off all at once how would that figure into your reckonings?
[In the context of the landslide that was the basis for the mega-tsunami hypothesis (500 cubic kilometres or thereabouts I think), 38 hectares is very small. Such a failure, if rapid, could develop a local tsunami, but it would not cause any problems at a distance. D.]
Is there any public site that presents real time GPS data for ground displacement on La Palma? How is the stability of the western flank holding up amidst the ongoing volcanic activity? I’m not interested in the doomsday speculation of a mega tsunami, just any landslide that may or may not occur.
So it’s the 18th October and yesterday one part of La Palma saw a 5cm shift. In 1971 there was a 4 metres shift of the western flank, towards the sea, creating a trench in the ridge that you can walk along. The earthquakes swarm and the volcano is very active now. The antipode (exact opposite earth position) is also having earthquakes on the edge of New Zealand.
Still, ‘God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Therefore we will not fear, though the earth give way and the mountains fall into the heart of the sea, though it’s waters roar and foam and the mountains quake with their surging.’
That’s from Psalm 46 written over 2500 years ago. Then look at Revelation 8 and what happens after the second trumpet is blown: ‘something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea’. This destroys a third of all ships.
It will only happen if God wills it. His plans are perfect. God wants us to turn to Him, that’s all He’s ever wanted. So do not fear this trouble. God is the only one to fear. Make a decision to turn to the LORD and He will turn towards you.