1 July 2010
Attabad – limited information flows
Posted by Dave Petley
Unfortunately, I am not currently receiving any updates on the situation at Attabad, so it is hard to post on what is going on. The best that I can do at the moment is to report the various figures from the media, although it is far from clear as to whether these are reliable.
The last set of data that I received from the site was for 25th June. At that time the sillway flow was reported to be as follows:
Spillway = 12,450 cusecs; Total outflow = 12,650 cusecs; Inflow = 14,810 cusecs
Media reported flows since have been (NB there are no indications as to the reliability of these figures, so I cannot vouch for them):
28th June: outflow = 15,000 cusecs; water level fallen 12 inches in two days (Pamir Times)
29th June: outflow = 16,000 cusecs; inflow = 14,000 – 15,000 cusecs; water level has fallen a “further” 13 inches (Hunza Times quoting the Chair of NDMA)
1st July: outflow – 16,554 cusecs; Water level increased 3 inches in previous 12 hours (Express Tribune)
I hope that the flow of information will improve soon, but can make no promises.
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
I'm dying for some updated pictures!!! Will any of you currently in the area please go and shoot some and post them pleasssssssssseeee!
is the NDMA website a reliable source?in their daily report (july 1st)they state: "currently the total discharge at Ganish Bridge is 16607 cusecs. 3.5 inches drop observed in the lake level since 1800 hours yesterday"igy
Deadly waiting for updates and expert openion about the behaviour of the lake and the spilway ahead. Think the news men have losed their treck and so are not providing info or may i say hiding.
Dear Dave. I visit your blog everyday and I strongly encourage you to continue posting your relevant analysis and comments on the situation. I would be egotistically (!) very frustrated of the contrary. I know well the precise place where the dam is, as I spent 8 month in Sarat (just at the foot of the dam) in 1974 when I was a young anthropologist, and visited friends there at many occasions when I was posted in Islamabad (1997-2009). I was even on the spot in sept 74 when the same kind of lake (although smaller) was formed downstream Gulmit. Thus I praise you for maintaining you blog. Yours sincerly (G.Lefeuvre, former attaché cultural French embassy and former Political attaché EU Delegation to Pakistan) [email protected]
The July 2 "one pager" at the NDMA site has a table of the water level going back to May 28.It indicates a peak about June 25, but minor decline (about 2 ft) since then. Their estimates of outflow over the period since the peak have been fairly stable (mid 15K to mid 16K cusecs), so it looks like flow-affecting erosion is minimal right now.
That graph is the best thing we've seen in a long time! By far..
Please note that there is something wrong with the NDMA data; possibly the graph is mislabeled. The label is "Water rises in inches." Also the texts suggests, "Graph showing rise of water in lake since overtopping of spillway on 29 May 10," but the one page report also suggests, "7.5 inches drop observed in the lake level since 1800 hours yesterday."So we have a water rise of over 200 inches and a drop of about 7.5 inches.I suspect that the graph is actually water level in inches with the May 29, 2010 level being used as a starting elevation. Otherwise the lake is rising over 16 feet every day, which cannot be true based on the photos.(Yes, I actually do read the labels on graphs, and yes, I do actually consider these things. I suspect that the author didn't even realize the error.)
Good morningI shall be very greatful if you may post the updated photos or a link to some article that has updated information please?Thank youNicky_________________Heathrow Airport Transfers | Cheap Minibus Hire London | Cheap Heathrow Airport Taxi | Cheap Heathrow Airport London Taxi | Gatwick Airport Taxi
Remember, when searching for video on Youtube, to use alternate spellings, such as: Ataabad Atta Abad, and so on. Such a search yesterday yielded this:http://www.youtube.com/user/blanabrong