19 October 2009
Latest update here
Unfortunately the news on typhoon Lupit (Ramil in the Philippines) is not getting any better. The storm has now turned towards the west and is picking up speed. It is now moving on a bearing of about 300 degrees at about 9 knots (c.17 kmh). This means that it is forecast to start to make landfall on the northern side of Luzon on Wednesday / Thursday. The current forecasts are that it will weaken slightly over the next few days, but this will still be a very strong storm if it does come ashore on Luzon:
The best hope at the moment is that it takes a more northerly track and shoots through the gap between Taiwan and Luzon. A more northerly track than this could be bad news for Taiwan – this is of course the area that was hit by Morakot (see images here and a review here) in August.
Meanwhile, in the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick is now weakening slightly but is heading northwards to make landfall on Baja California, also on Wednesday:
This storm also has the potential to bring very heavy rainfall, in this case to Mexico, with a very real threat of landslides.