10 June 2008
Updated: Tangjiashan is breaching
Posted by Dave Petley
Andy has posted a comment on the blog saying “Latest news: At 7:20am 6/10 (Beijing time), the outflow reached 377 m3/s and lake level was 742.80 m compared with 742.96m 12 hours ago. Before hit the post button, I checked the news one more time. The new outflow number is 500 m3/s! Is it a good or bad news that the outflow increases so fast?”
Update: Xinhua has confirmed that the rate of flow has indeed increased.
Update: Ripen reports that at 09:00 local time the flow had increased to 1210 cumecs. The breach is clearly occurring very fast now. The next three hours are critical.
Update: Aerial image of the breach, from http://news.sohu.com.
Note that the very steepest part of the channel is just below the crest. The magnitude of the flow will be determined by whether this migrates to the crest. The situation is on a knife-edge.
I hope all of the soldiers have been pulled off the dam now!
The peak discharge increased to 1210m3/sec at 9:00 (Beijing time) and water level drops to 742.18m. We can guess the erosion rate is very high at this moment from rapid increase in discharge from 377 to 1210 within three hours.
Dear Dr. Dave,I think the breach is already started. The outflow discharge is 1760m3/sec at 9:30 (10th June, Beijing time).(http://220.127.116.11/babelfish/translate_url_content?.intl=us&lp;=zh_en&trurl;=http%3a%2f%2fnews.sohu.com%2f20080610%2fn257392120.shtml)
The photo of enlarged and incised channel can be found in the website:http://news.sohu.com/20080610/n257393199.shtml