10 June 2008
Posted by Dave Petley
This is a quick, back of the envelope graph of the reported flow rate at Tangjiashan.
The dramatic rise in flow rate is clear, but so far this is not catastrophic. The next data point is the key one – can anyone provide it?
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
below is a link showing the channel at 9am 6/10(beijing time). the flow looks very strong:http://news.sohu.com/20080610/n257393199.shtmlah
I estimated it as 5,500 cms at 10:30 a.m. The other one million people need to be evacuated now!!!
Dare Dr. Dave,Discharge is 4300m3/sec at 10:35 (Beijing time).
Here are some data from reports:9 am: 17109:30 am: 24009:55 am: 3240Order has be given to evacute additional residents.ah
Discharge increased to 6440m3/sec at 10:45 (Beijing time).
China News Service 10:30 AM bulletin — 26 km downstream at Beichuan monitoring station 5980 cubic meters per second, now exceeding the predicted level of a once in 100 years flood. All personnel at Tangjiashan blocked lake evacuated by helicopter.http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2008/06-10/1276781.shtmlFor updates, try this search pattern on Chinese language news that runs through Google Translatehttp://tinyurl.com/6dbwj3David
The lake level at 10am was 740.51m. Some reports said that cracks are seen on the dam. maybe about to burst.ah
this has a photo from downstream (sorry, can’t figure out where; the “north country”)http://news.xinhuanet.com/photo/2008-06/10/content_8338246.htmshowing quite a bit of sediment in the water downstream, and the clear prospects for downstream flooding starting already.
translated from http://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/news/2008/06-10/1276890.shtmlAccording to the Ministry of Water Resources website news, at 11:00 on June 10, the water level upstream Tang Shan Yan Sehu 737.56 meters, 8:00 in the water level (742.80 m) dropped 5.24 meters, the corresponding water storage capacity to 207.1 million Cubic meters, the discharge flow of 6,680 cubic meters per second slot.In addition, the water level downstream-mouth Hydrometric Station 541.12 meters, the corresponding flow of 1,580 cubic meters per second, the water level downstream-hydropower station Hydrometric Station 528.40 meters, the corresponding flow of 1,200 cubic meters per second.