19 July 2010
Latest Attabad lake level information
Posted by Dave Petley
I have now extracted the lake level data from the latest NDMA daily report. The latest graph on lake level above the spillway floor at the time of overtopping is as follows:
I haven’t updated the long term lake level graph for a long time, so here it is:
Finally, the flow through the spillway is also now increasing, even though the lake level is going up:
This increased lake level must be causing problems upstream, although there are few media reports at present. The weather forecast for the next two days is for warm weather, so expect inflow to continue to be high. Based on the analysis by David Archer, the mean date for peak flow is 29th July – i.e. about ten days from now. Given the cold winter it may occur late this year, but within a month the inflow should be starting to reduce.
The question is will there be major breach in the landslide barrier?. So far this dam has politely defied all expert predictions.My personal view is baring a earthquake or major up-stream landslide, this dam will remain unless through human interventions the lake is drained.There are around 20,000 persons in IDP camps which incl . children and women.My heart bleeds for their sufferings.Dr. Hasam