19 July 2010
I have now extracted the lake level data from the latest NDMA daily report. The latest graph on lake level above the spillway floor at the time of overtopping is as follows:
I haven’t updated the long term lake level graph for a long time, so here it is:
Finally, the flow through the spillway is also now increasing, even though the lake level is going up:
This increased lake level must be causing problems upstream, although there are few media reports at present. The weather forecast for the next two days is for warm weather, so expect inflow to continue to be high. Based on the analysis by David Archer, the mean date for peak flow is 29th July – i.e. about ten days from now. Given the cold winter it may occur late this year, but within a month the inflow should be starting to reduce.