24 May 2010
24th May update on Attabad (post now complete)
Posted by Dave Petley
FOCUS have kindly provided an update on the state of affairs at Attabad, and NDMA have also posted online their statistics for 22nd May (note this is now two days out of date). The freeboard graph looks like this:
Key points:
1. The Focus data (which has consistently been the most reliable) indicates a freeboard of 1.15 metres on 23rd, with the water level increasing at about 80 cm per day, giving a likely overtopping date of today or tomorrow.
2. However, the NDMA data gives a freeboard 60 cm higher than Focus on 22nd May, and a lower rate of water level rise (48 cm in 24 hours). If this is correct, overtopping will occur later in the week.
Seepage continues to increase, but a seepage-induced failure now looks unlikely in the context of loss of freeboard. Focus have provided some images of the situation taken from their monitoring point. Before I show these, I do want to make the point that the Focus team have provided an exceptional service to the people of Hunza, and indeed of Pakistan, as well as to readers of this blog. They have done so iin extraordinarily difficult conditions. This is the text and monitoring point in which they have been living for the last two months:
The mast is the CCTV station. We have all benefited from the information they have provided – I hope that comments on this post will reflect this extraordinary effort and contribution, and that in due course the people of Pakistan will recognise what they have achieved.
The team have provided this image of the site looking down from this monitoring point:
This is a view from the monitoring point looking down onto the dam site, taken yesterday by Focus:
My concern about the state of the spillway is increasing. This image shows the spillway from the same point:
The spillway looks in a fairly poor state in the image above. However, the image posted today on the Pamir Times is even worse:
It is clear that the sides of the spillway have closed up over the last few weeks, leaving a narrow channel that is almost totally inadequate. The weakness of the materials also bodes ill for events when over-topping occurs.
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
Indeed a great job by FOCUS team. After seeing the photo of the camp they are living in, I can imagine how difficult it have been for them.
don't they have their own website where they post in realtime? I wish they had a webcam on the dam but that's probably too much to ask.. I guess they post/mail pictures by mobile phone data connection.. if lucky!
Great work by FOCUS, the only reliable source in this situation, I salute the volunteers living in this camp and updating us all around the world. Thank you Dave for posting FOCUS information for us.Javed Ali -Tajikistan
Hello David,The two most reliable sources are your blog and obervation of Focus.,the scientic work by your side and Observation of focus is really a great job for informing the rest of the world about this neglected part on earth. we really appriciate the work of focus and the job by your side as well.will it be possible for you to write a complete report from the day 1st of the slidding and highliting the criminal neglagance of the government of pakistan and bring it to any internaional inquiry. it would be a great volunarily work and humanitarian work by your side. or can you tell us how to bring it to an internaiotnal inquiry?
Thank you FOCUS team; you guys have done a suplendid job!and thanks alot David for this blog. Always updated with reliable statistics.
Wooo three cheers for FOCUS – my respect for them has increased a thousandfold having seen the conditions in which they are living. Stay clear of the edge, guys!
A big thanks to the FOCUS team, and to Dave for keeping us up to date.
Thank you FOCUS!These last photos do not look good. We are down to the last few hours now.Again, thank you FOCUS.
Indeed a great effort, and I salute them.Khalid KhanTokyo