You are browsing the archive for May 2010 - Page 2 of 5 - The Landslide Blog.
28 May 2010
Attabad: Overtopping is now likely to be imminent
It is unfortunate timing that the likely day of overtopping has fallen on a Friday, the holy day in Pakistan, meaning that flow of information is impeded. As a result I have not yet had an update for today on the lake level. Jean Schneider of BOKU visited the site yesterday by helicopter and measured the freeboard at 2.25 feet, which is about 70 cm. I am not sure what …
27 May 2010
Attabad: the freeboard is now reportedly about 1,3 metres
The latest NDMA figures suggest that the freeboard is down to about 4.3 feet (1.31 metres) as of 3 pm today. That is a reduction of about 70 cm on the day, meaning that we are probably less than two days from the point of overtopping: I am reasonably confident of these values as the Focus geologists took this picture yesterday of the spillway: The circled boulder is the crest …
Attabad: update for 27th May
Filling of the lake behind the slide at Attabad continues, with the reported freeboard being 1.98 metres as of yesterday afternoon. I have not yet received a value for today – I will update the figures when this comes through. For now the freeboard time graph looks like this: This would suggest a likely date of overtopping of 28th to 29th May, but once again caveats apply. It is now …
26 May 2010
Attabad: update report for 26th May
The combined monitoring effort appears now to be providing consistent measurements of the remaining freeboard, and these are now being used in the media, which is helpful. As of late last night the reported freeboard was 8.8 feet, which is 2.56 metres. This provides a freeboard – time graph that looks like this: This suggests that we are still on course for overtopping on about 27th or 28th May, although …
25 May 2010
Attabad – a bizarre race between two processes
Yesterdays “coalition” resurvey of the spillway and water level now appears to provide a definitive freeboard value. As of 8 am this morning the freeboard was 3.027 metres, representing an increase of water level of 1.09 metres in the last 24 hours. This elevated rate of water level rise probably reflects the warmer weather in the area in the last few days, which will be driving snowmelt. I have recalculated …
24 May 2010
A further update on Attabad
Important update: a combined Focus and FWO team have now resurveyed the freeboard and have agreed that there correct freeboard figure was 11.5 feet (3.5 metres) this morning. This means that overtopping is likely to be a few more days away, although failure could still occur at any time. NDMA have now released their daily report for yesterday, so I have replotted the freeboard graph (see note above): You will …
24th May update on Attabad (post now complete)
FOCUS have kindly provided an update on the state of affairs at Attabad, and NDMA have also posted online their statistics for 22nd May (note this is now two days out of date). The freeboard graph looks like this: Key points:1. The Focus data (which has consistently been the most reliable) indicates a freeboard of 1.15 metres on 23rd, with the water level increasing at about 80 cm per day, …
23 May 2010
Meanwhile, elsewhere
Although all eyes, and increasingly those of the media (which is showing considerable interest in this blog), are on Attabad, other landslides are happening around the world as we enter the rainy season in many landslide prone areas of the Northern Hemisphere. In the last few days a number of significant landslide events have occurred: 1. A landslide-induced rail crash in China this morning.Xinhua reports that an 8000 cubic metre, …
Attabad – less than two metres to go before water flow
Several people have asked for an update on the situation at Attabad, and a forecast of what will happen, so here goes. First, the situation as I understand it is as follows. In the last few days the availability of data on the situation on the ground has become difficult for reasons that are very understandable. However, Focus have continued to take measurements of lake depth when possible, and NDMA …
21 May 2010
Seepage at the Attabad landslide
Focus have today kindly provided a new set of measurements of the state of the Attabad landslide. I will update the monitoring site shortly, but in the meantime here is the graph of the development of seepage. The plot of seepage against time suggests that the trend in the rate of development of seepage changed on the last few days. Note how the most recent point does not fit on …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
Recent Comments