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1 July 2022
In Case You Were Wondering About This…
In case you were wondering… IF Bonnie has a recognizable circulation (Tropical Depression), into the Pacific, and then regenerates, the name Bonnie will continue to be used by the National Hurricane Center. If it falls apart to a disturbance, and then regenerates, then a Pacific cyclone name will be assigned. I must say, this makes scientific sense and it is something that comes up, although rarely. Since the mid-1800’s, only …
31 July 2020
Hurricane Isaias Will Be Wetter and Stronger Because of Climate Change
Hurricane Warnings were just posted for much of Central/South Florida, from the Kennedy Space Center southward to Boca Raton and it looks more and more likely that Isaias will track near the coastline as far north as Delaware. Make no mistake about it, the storm will be worse because of climate change in a myriad of ways. The storm surge and any coastal flooding will be higher because the sea …
10 September 2019
NWS Director and Chief Science Officer at NOAA Back NWS Hurricane Tweet; Who Wrote NOAA Friday Statement??
In a (not really) surprising turn of events, Monday, the Director of the National Weather Service Louis Uccinelli and NOAA’s chief science officer publicly backed a tweet issued by the NWS office in Birmingham on Sept. 1st. That tweet (which was scientifically accurate) told residents that Hurricane Dorian would not be a threat to Alabama. It was posted after their phones melted with rumors that Alabama would be hit much …
24 May 2019
Another Climate Change Surprise?
What worries me most about our reckless experiment with the planet’s thermostat is not the predictions of sea level rise and the changes in rainfall patterns etc. What we’d better not ignore are the surprises and there are sure to be many of them. Some new research out this month hints at what might be a big one. Synoptic meteorologists (like me) have gotten much better at forecasting the track …
13 September 2018
Florence Update
Here is an update on Hurricane Florence. It’s my 11 PM Weathercast Wednesday night on WBOC, here on the Delmarva/Eastern Shore of Maryland. I started with a comparison of the same storm in the 1960’s and how the water levels/storm surge would be different today. Rainfall guidance over the next 84 hours is showing as much as 27 inches (68.6 CM) of rainfall in some areas with over 30 …
8 September 2018
If You Live On The Eastern Seaboard, It’s Time To Worry About Florence
I’ve been pretty quiet here about the tropics this week and for good reason. Long range weather model forecasts are (as John Nance Garner described the office of Vice President) not worth a bucket of warm spit. In addition, tropical cyclones, at the position of Florence earlier in the week, have historically curved north and in only a couple of cases been a threat to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. So yes, it …
3 September 2018
The Tropical Atlantic is Starting To Bubble
The tropics are getting more active now. An old forecaster saying is “there’s almost always a hurricane on Atlantic weather map on Labor Day. We have Tropical Storm Florence in the far west Atlantic and a possible developing depression near Florida on this Labor day 2018. Both of which will need to be watched. It looks like the switch has been turned on in the Atlantic Basin as a more …
16 October 2017
UK and Ireland Smacked Hard By Ophelia
My close friends in Wales report the “wheely bins” are all over the place. The obs at Dublin airport show winds have gusted to right at 60 mph during the afternoon and evening, and on Anglesey, in Wales the winds reach 65 mph! Here is a view fo the storm from the Meteosat (ctsy Univ. of Dundee’s downlink station). FYI: Ophelia is no longer a hurricane. As it moved over the much …
14 September 2017
It’s Time for a 21st Century Hurricane Scale
Most folks are familiar with the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale and while it’s very useful, it also has some drawbacks. It’s greatest attribute is that the public understands it, but I’m not alone among meteorologists who think the time has come to replace it. We need a new scale that will better indicate the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone, and there are some good candidates out there. The main …
7 September 2017
This Looks Bad- Very Bad.
My hopes that Irma would turn just east of Florida are diminishing tonight. If the eye stayed just offshore the damage would be FAR less than a landfall. Remember that those 170 mph winds are concentrated right around the eye, and if that eyewall stayed offshore the winds would not likely go above hurricane force except in gusts along the coast. The worst scenario I can imagine is a Cat 4 …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.