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31 July 2020

Hurricane Isaias Will Be Wetter and Stronger Because of Climate Change

Hurricane Warnings were just posted for much of Central/South Florida, from the Kennedy Space Center southward to Boca Raton and it looks more and more likely that Isaias will track near the coastline as far north as Delaware. Make no mistake about it, the storm will be worse because of climate change in a myriad of ways. The storm surge and any coastal flooding will be higher because the sea …

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10 September 2019

NWS Director and Chief Science Officer at NOAA Back NWS Hurricane Tweet; Who Wrote NOAA Friday Statement??

In a (not really) surprising turn of events, Monday, the Director of the National Weather Service Louis Uccinelli and NOAA’s chief science officer publicly backed a tweet issued by the NWS office in Birmingham on Sept. 1st. That tweet (which was scientifically accurate) told residents that Hurricane Dorian would not be a threat to Alabama. It was posted after their phones melted with rumors that Alabama would be hit much …

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24 May 2019

Another Climate Change Surprise?

What worries me most about our reckless experiment with the planet’s thermostat is not the predictions of sea level rise and the changes in rainfall patterns etc. What we’d better not ignore are the surprises and there are sure to be many of them. Some new research out this month hints at what might be a big one. Synoptic meteorologists (like me) have gotten much better at forecasting the track …

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13 September 2018

Florence Update

Here is an update on Hurricane Florence. It’s my 11 PM Weathercast Wednesday night on WBOC, here on the Delmarva/Eastern Shore of Maryland. I started with a comparison of the same storm in the 1960’s and how the water levels/storm surge would be different today.  Rainfall guidance over the next 84 hours is showing as much as 27 inches (68.6 CM) of rainfall in some areas with over 30 …

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8 September 2018

If You Live On The Eastern Seaboard, It’s Time To Worry About Florence

I’ve been pretty quiet here about the tropics this week and for good reason. Long range weather model forecasts are (as John Nance Garner described the office of Vice President) not worth a bucket of warm spit. In addition, tropical cyclones, at the position of Florence earlier in the week, have historically curved north and in only a couple of cases been a threat to the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. So yes, it …

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3 September 2018

The Tropical Atlantic is Starting To Bubble

The tropics are getting more active now. An old forecaster saying is  “there’s almost always a hurricane on Atlantic weather map on Labor Day. We have Tropical Storm Florence in the far west Atlantic and a possible developing depression near Florida on this Labor day 2018. Both of which will need to be watched. It looks like the switch has been turned on in the Atlantic Basin as a more …

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16 October 2017

UK and Ireland Smacked Hard By Ophelia

My close friends in Wales report the “wheely bins” are all over the place. The obs at Dublin airport show winds have gusted to right at 60 mph during the afternoon and evening, and on Anglesey, in Wales the winds reach 65 mph! Here is a view fo the storm from the Meteosat (ctsy Univ. of Dundee’s downlink station). FYI: Ophelia is no longer a hurricane. As it moved over the much …

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14 September 2017

It’s Time for a 21st Century Hurricane Scale

Most folks are familiar with the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale and while it’s very useful, it also has some drawbacks. It’s greatest attribute is that the public understands it, but I’m not alone among meteorologists who think the time has come to replace it. We need a new scale that will better indicate the destructive potential of a tropical cyclone, and there are some good candidates out there. The main …

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7 September 2017

This Looks Bad- Very Bad.

My hopes that Irma would turn just east of Florida are diminishing tonight. If the eye stayed just offshore the damage would be FAR less than a landfall. Remember that those 170 mph winds are concentrated right around the eye, and if that eyewall stayed offshore the winds would not likely go above hurricane force except in gusts along the coast. The worst scenario I can imagine is a Cat 4 …

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27 August 2017

Read These Two Essays to Really Understand What Happened In Houston Last Night

When you work as a meteorologist or a reporter, you accept that there will be times when your sleep, hunger, and comfort come far behind the importance of serving the public. Last night was one of those moments for those at the NWS in Houston, and the reporters/meteorologists at Houston TV stations. At one point the NWS office had 4 tornado warnings and at least as many Flash Flood Emergency warnings …

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