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27 August 2017
Read These Two Essays to Really Understand What Happened In Houston Last Night
When you work as a meteorologist or a reporter, you accept that there will be times when your sleep, hunger, and comfort come far behind the importance of serving the public. Last night was one of those moments for those at the NWS in Houston, and the reporters/meteorologists at Houston TV stations. At one point the NWS office had 4 tornado warnings and at least as many Flash Flood Emergency warnings …
26 August 2017
Astounding Model Output Leads to Forecasts We Meteorologists Never Thought We Would Make
I’ve forecasted the weather for 37 years and I’ve never seen consistent model output forecasting rainfall amounts of over 30 inches before. Astounding and astonishing are the only words I can use to describe what I’ve been seeing from the numerical models. Not only that, but it’s the same with nearly every usually reliable model. Could all of the models be wrong? Could this storm fizzle rather quickly once it …
31 August 2016
The Tropics Are Hoppin, and The Danger May Be High Far from the Storms
In the Atlantic, Hurricane Gaston has been producing high swells and dangerous rip currents on the Mid-Atlantic beaches. I was in Ocean City Md. yesterday evening at high tide, and water came up much farther than normal, with powerful waves crashing on the coast. A Hurricane Watch was also posted for the Gulf Coast of Florida north of Tampa this evening, and the depression off the Carolinas may make it …
6 July 2016
Monster Typhoon Nepartak Approaching Taiwan
Radar from the Taiwan Weather Service shows the first rain bands approaching Taiwan, Winds are at 150 knots near the center of Nepartak, but it should weaken some before landfall, as it encounters the mountains of Taiwan, and slightly cooler water. It will still be a very dangerous storm though, and it will cross into mainland China, and drop very heavy rainfall over the same area that experienced severe flooding …
11 February 2016
Note To Cruise Lines and Politicians- We Save our Forecasts
Over the last year or so there’s been some embarrassing missteps by politicians, TV networks (and recently here), and now a cruise ship company with regard to storms that hit without warning. In everyone one of these cases, the archived forecasts show that the opposite was true, and there was plenty of warning. The latest case in point was late Sunday when the cruise ship Anthem of the Seas sailed headlong …
14 January 2016
January Tropical Cyclones in The Atlantic & Pacific. At The Same Time!
This hasn’t happened before. Alex is the earliest tropical cyclone on record in the Atlantic. Pali, in the Central Pacific, became the earliest hurricane there this week, only weakening to a tropical storm tonight. What’s going on you ask? Answer: The atmosphere and the oceans are on steroids. The world’s oceans are the warmest ever measured, and the strongest El Nino on record is underway in the Pacific. 2015 was …
23 October 2015
Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia Heads To Mexico with Winds Near 200 MPH. Strongest East Pacific Storm On Record!
Mexico’s Pacific Coast has rarely, if ever, been hit by a Cat 5 severe hurricane, but that is exactly what will happen tomorrow between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane hunter dropsonde report showed winds reaching 179 knots or 206 mph at flight level near the eye and surface winds are now near 185 mph. This truly is a monster storm. It will produce a catastrophic storm surge where it makes …
21 August 2015
Hurricane Danny May Be at Peak Strength
Danny now has winds near the center at 115 mph, but it is actually a rather tiny storm. Latest model runs continue a west-NW track but dry air is just to the north and wind shear will begin to impact the storm in about 48 hours. This should weaken it and the latest hires numerical model guidance shows just that. The intensity forecast from the HWRF model shows it weakening …
20 August 2015
Update on Hurricane Danny
Latest water vapor wavelength IR images show a large area of rather dry air ahead of Danny, and it looks like this will continue to impact the tropical cyclone, as it approaches the Windward islands early next week. By Sunday, the storm will also begin to run into more wind shear in the troposphere, and this will (at the least) keep it from strengthening as well. The Hurricane WRF model …
27 May 2015
NOAA Issues 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast
You cannot learn to forecast something if you do not try, and testing predictions is what science is all about, so with that in mind, here is the hurricane forecast from NOAA for 2015. There is not a lot of skill in these forecasts, but this year we have some help. A growing El Nino (that looks like it may be a strong one) is the major factor in the …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.