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You are browsing the archive for 2011 September 01.

1 September 2011

No doubt about it- There is trouble brewing in the Gulf

  Strong tropical wave in the Gulf along with satellite based wind obs (ASCAT). From CIMMS. Update: TD 13 has formed and advisories have started from NHC. There is growing concern among my fellow forecasters tonight over the tropical wave in the Gulf. A late recon plane report indicates a tropical depression may be forming and numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are indicating development into a tropical storm over the …

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A Lonely Speck In The Great Enveloping Cosmic Dark

I know  have posted it before but this demands a reprise for Carl Sagan’s Pale Blue Dot: Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us. On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives. The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, …

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NHC missed the Irene Forecast?? I Think Not.

Every meteorologist/forecaster I know agrees that the NHC forecasters did an amazing job on Irene. Yes, the intensity forecast was a little high on the landfall forecast for N. Carolina, but the skill in intensity forecasts is still a much bigger problem than track and the 24 hour forecast was quite close. There are few weather obs on the outer banks and I suspect the winds were higher than recorded …

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