1 September 2011

NHC missed the Irene Forecast?? I Think Not.

Posted by Dan Satterfield

Every meteorologist/forecaster I know agrees that the NHC forecasters did an amazing job on Irene. Yes, the intensity forecast was a little high on the landfall forecast for N. Carolina, but the skill in intensity forecasts is still a much bigger problem than track and the 24 hour forecast was quite close. There are few weather obs on the outer banks and I suspect the winds were higher than recorded anyhow.

Get used to flooding in hurricanes, the atmosphere holds 4-7% more water vapor in the warmer world of 2011 than that of 1911. That said, this would not be a good time to cut stream gauges that forecasters use to make flash flood warnings.

No one would be that crazy, right.