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26 October 2009
Just when you thought it was safe to go out in Luzon…
…another potential typhoon appears (Tropical Storm 23): Unbelievable, although the track error this far out is of course very high.
23 October 2009
Typhoon Lupit stalls off the coast of Luzon
Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now stalled off the northern coast off Luzon and is forecast to recurve and to head northwards, whilst weakening as it encounters increasingly cold water over the next few days: This has been an extremely fortunate outcome, and one that has also exposed the continuing problems with forecasting typhoon tracks. The eTRap forecast for the precipitation over the next 24 hours clearly highlights just how close …
21 October 2009
Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) continues to confound!
The behaviour of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast, primarily because its movement remains quite slow. The latest JTWC track forecast is still suggesting that the track will pass across the northern part of Luzon:However, the storm is now moving slowly and is likely to continue to do so, which makes forecasting its track much more difficult. The major concern is that the JTWC forecast above suggests …
20 October 2009
Typhoon Lupit (Typhoon Ramil) continues to threaten Luzon
Latest update here Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) has now resumed its westward progress and remains on track to cross the northern part of Luzon in the Philippines:The typhoon has weakened somewhat over the last few hours, with maximum sustained wind speeds now in the order of 85 knots. This weakening appears to be associated with some drier air that surrounded the typhoon, disrupting its organised circulation. However, there is now some …
19 October 2009
Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) – some interesting images
Thanks to Dr Deirdre McKay from Keele University for highlighting these images to me. Inan Lanoi has an album of photographs taken in the aftermath of Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines. Whilst perhaps less polished than the images that one gets on news sites, they capture very well the true impact of the landslides. The images can be viewed on Inan’s Facebook page here (you need a Facebook account …
Latest update on Typhoon Lupit (Typhoon Ramil) and Hurricane Rick
Latest update here Unfortunately the news on typhoon Lupit (Ramil in the Philippines) is not getting any better. The storm has now turned towards the west and is picking up speed. It is now moving on a bearing of about 300 degrees at about 9 knots (c.17 kmh). This means that it is forecast to start to make landfall on the northern side of Luzon on Wednesday / Thursday. The …
18 October 2009
Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) update
Latest update here According to the latest track maps, Typhoon Lupit (known locally as Typhoon Ramil in the Philippines) has been effectively stalled out to the east of Luzon for the last couple of days. It may look as if the storm is now heading away from Luzon, but current forecasts are that it will resume its westward movement in the next day or so:This is a very large and …
Typhoon Parma – rainfall and landslide maps
NASA have recently produced a map of the distribution of rainfall from Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines: The map has been produced from “the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which includes rainfall observations from many satellites that are calibrated to match more detailed rainfall observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission”. I am not sure how reliable this is, but it is certainly a useful first estimate. I thought it would …
16 October 2009
Another threat to the Philippines – Typhoon Lupit
Unfortunately things do not get any easier in the Philippines. Just as the clear-up from Typhoon Parma really gets under way (my tally of the landslide related deaths from this event is currently 346 people), another typhoon has formed. The current track forecasts suggest that there is a reasonable chance that it will pass over the northern part of Luzon once again: Note that the labels on the track give …
15 October 2009
Typhoon Parma – interesting image
I have today come across this dramatic image of the aftermath of the landslides triggered by typhoon Parma (Pepeng) in the Philippines (source GMA News.TV):
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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