16 October 2009
Note that the labels on the track give the date and time – i.e. 21/00Z represents midnight (UT) on 21st, so the storm is some days away. Track forecasts are quite unreliable (that is what the shaded area represents), but the danger here is very real. With the ground being very wet from earlier events, a direct hit from this storm could be very serious. My experience is that late season typhoons (and this is most definitely late in the season) often seem to be quite damaging, although I have no empirical evidence to support that observation.