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22 June 2010
Blasting of boulders has begun at Attabad
Yesterday NDMA started the process of blasting the boulders in the channel at Attabad. This image, from Focus, shows the state of the channel and the reconstructed access track: One of the blasts yesterday was on the boulder at the entrance to the channel, visible on the left of the image above. This image shows the crews drilling the blast holes: Clearly this boulder is not the main issue in …
20 June 2010
Attabad – a decision has been taken to blast
It appears that a decision has now been taken to attempt to blast the key boulders controlling the flow at Attabad, with suggestions now being made that blasts will begin tomorrow (Monday). This is a brave decision by NDMA – and I wish them luck. The context appears to be a combination of the continued exasperation of the local people about the lack or resolution of the situation, and the …
18 June 2010
River flows at Attabad
Thanks to Dr David Archer of the University of Newcastle for an analysis of the dates of peak flows on the Hunza. The analysis is for Danyor (sometimes spelt “Dainyore”), which is near to Gilgit downstream of Attabad (there is no hydrograph data for Attabad itself), but it provides a clear insight into the current vs maximum flow in the river. Danyor (Dainyore) Bridge (from here) This table shows …
15 June 2010
Attabad – remarkable stability on the spillway – and some thoughts on what to do next
I will shortly post the latest update on the monitoring site, which shows that the lake level is continuing to rise at about 5 cm per day as inflow exceeds outflow. The spillway continues to show a remarkable level of stability. These two images compare an image from Sunday (left side) with one taken 24 hours later on Monday (right side). Whilst it is tempting to play spot the difference, …
14 June 2010
Attabad – a further twist in the tail
Over the weekend the water level in the lake at Attabad has started to rise once again (see the monitoring site), presumably indicating that the warm weather in the Hunza region is increasing the rate of snowmelt, and therefore of inflow to the lake. The continued choke on flow being imposed by the large boulders in the channel is clear. The channel itself continues to evolve slowly through widening (image …
11 June 2010
The continued threat posed by landslides at Attabad
Attention continues to be focused upon the state of the spillway at Attabad, and in particular the likely impact of the increase in flow we might see over the next few weeks. Yesterday’s images from Focus showed that slow evolution of the spillway continues, with the lake level reported to have dropped only by a:n inch (2.5 cm): However, we must not lose sight of the potential for other failure …
10 June 2010
Attabad spillway video
Thanks to a number of people for drawing my attention to the Hunzaonline video on youtube that shows the spillway in action. The caption indicates that this was collected on the 8th June: Three observations about this video: It shows that the major restriction on flow is still the large boulder at the saddle of the spillway; A second boulder has formed substantive constriction downstream as well, but this is …
9 June 2010
Slowing evolution of the spillway at Attabad
Once again I am grateful for Focus Humanitarian Assistance for sending the latest photos of the spillway at Attabad. The rate of change new seems to be slowing as flow is being controlled by the large boulders at the head of the channel. This pair show the downslope side of the channel – the left hand image was taken on 7th June and the right hand image a day later: …
7 June 2010
Latest image of the spillway at Attabad
The wonderful people at Focus have provided an image of the state of the spillway at Attabad that is very instructive. This was taken today: The current state of play is I think as follows. Flow appears to be constrained by two blockages but, as a commenter has noted, one is a rock spur out of the channel. The blockage appears to have formed a small waterfall / rapid. Downstream …
Attabad – an increasingly difficult hazard to manage
Apologies to all who emailed and left messages over the weekend requesting updates. FWO data collected at 8 am on Saturday suggests that the rate of flow was 124.6 cumecs, whilst the Pamir Times reported yesterday that it was 131.7 cumecs. If so, the discharge time graph looks like this: Thus, the discharge is apparently stabilising. Various media reports from the site itself suggest that downward erosion of the channel …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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