22 June 2010
Blasting of boulders has begun at Attabad
Posted by Dave Petley
Yesterday NDMA started the process of blasting the boulders in the channel at Attabad. This image, from Focus, shows the state of the channel and the reconstructed access track:
One of the blasts yesterday was on the boulder at the entrance to the channel, visible on the left of the image above. This image shows the crews drilling the blast holes:
Clearly this boulder is not the main issue in terms of the flow, but it may be that they are using this one, which is accessible, as a test. Access to the other side of the channel is difficult, so the suggestion is that water cannon will be used to erode the softer material. It will be interesting to see what they do today in terms of blasts.
Meanwhile the lake level rose by between 8 and 10 inches (20-25 cm) yesterday, suggesting that inflow has increased again.
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
Yes David its really interesting step by Pakistan Army, i think they should have done it before but to what extent they are going to blast this does matter. hope they will do it gradually.
"Boulder" looks as big as a boxcar. IT will take a while but with enough drill bits, etc they will get by it. But this is the one you can see. The hydraulic at the channel suggests the problem is below water.Not much time left before the inflow increases from 6-9 cmsec and the main overtopping of the approach channel begins. Tony M
The before blast picture has men in orange with yellow hardhats, not exactly military colors. Bet that they are quarrymen. Or geologists.
The dam seems remarkably stable. If the saddle is not erroding, why not see if it could withstand the peak flows of July. If the landslide remains robust then instead of trying to blast the landslide, which could cause much damage downstream, why not stabilise the dam and generate electricity. The flows would generate 100MW of electricity in a region short of power.The lands and houses flooded so far would take years to recover so why not accept the situation, re settle everyone and then give the local inhabitants the money generated from the dam to rebuild their lives.
The process of blasting has begun, but doing this way, it hardly can result in something to increase flow of water. It should be done in more realistic way , as the people of Hunz are suffering. They are away from their houses. They are away from education facilities. Their agriculture has failed and other facilities are destroyed and still under water.
If you only have a handheld drill, you won't be able to make much of a dent in the entire problem. However the second picture does show a wave at the boulder; so it may be possible that a few percent more flow will be obtained.Is this a prelude to more serious efforts or a placatory gesture?
Well, if the blasting out at the point is all they are doing, then it looks to me like they are hurting the process.It would appear that they took a chunk of boulder that was out of the channel (up on the bank) and blasted it into the channel, essentially filling it in and increasing the resistance to flow at that point.Clearly the flow rate is low out at the point, so whatever they blasted off the bank is now right there in the channel. Indeed, the turbulence there appears to have increased, as one would expect if you plopped a boulder in the water right there.
Seems they are doing something with the bolder at the mouth of the channel but uptill today it seems only a guesture like work to avoid more protests from the affected people.One can only believe if it results in increasing the outflow other than the increasing inflow.
I think the flow pattern will be completely changed in the inlet of spillway and outflow will be increased if we can remove the boulder where NDM is attempting to blast. We can easily imagine if we compare the current situation of spillway inlet in Hunza landslide dammed lake and Tangjiashan landslide dammed lake (previously posted in this web site):Spillway of Hunza landslide dammed lakehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_a2JvElU8gh4/TA1YObfncUI/AAAAAAAADEM/t5g5Tv2Rg94/s1600/10_06+spillway+7th+June.jpgBreached channel of Tangjiashan landslide dammed lakehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_a2JvElU8gh4/S_j5CAw9xsI/AAAAAAAAC8U/6Mn3DExtDnM/s1600/08_06+tangjiashan+16.jpgThe blasting of boulder in the middle of spillway by using dynamite and drilling hole is very difficult. Probably, it will be possible by firing of missiles.
I agree with Javed. Saddle is the Issue. We must reclaim the valley.
I had posted a suggestion on 11th of June for using Water Cannons to wash away the Debris in order to widen the spillway.Boulders of this size must be firmly lodged as deep in the soil as they are visible, if the soil surrounding them is washed away, they will loose hold of the soil in which they are firmly embedded and the pressere of water may wash them aside.In case water jets are used they will not let debris to accumulate in the water channel and even if there is a land slide, it may be washed away.These cannons will be easier to deploy and operate from the track adjacent to the Spillway and much more safer and effective than the explosive option.I had also suggested this to Brig Sajid Naeem of NDMA on his e mail address but got no response from him.It is very heartening to see Dr. David Petley also suggesting use of the water cannons.I hope and pray this lake is drained safely and well in time before the summer peak flow makes things run out of control.Colonel ( Retd) Kaiser Hameed Khan
I suggest we nuke it.
javid.. great idea..we must generate electricity and plant wheat crop / mango trees on the saddle and develop that as the new tourist hot spot.. income from all the sources..
For the last two days the blasts have continued. An excavator is also working.Erosion has started on sides of the spillway so the width is likely to increase. Within a week the water will rise by 7-8 ft and cover the right elevated side of the spillway. That would take discharge through the spillway significantly.
Dear David Thanks a lot for the contribution and for being our voice. I have been through some comments some of them commented having know how of the ground realities and others like Mr. Javid, a Brigadier and some others have shown their intellect act by suggesting to build a dam and generate electricity ….how childish i would like to say that how is it possible even the seismic report is not in favor of, the surrounding rocks are not mature ….we have to consider the ground realities its not fancy dream…..If we do so it will be a death message to the down stream…… Mr. Javid seems a pro-government activist I want to say will you give any assurance of the royalty that government will pay to the locals????? No and Never!!!!! Because being a resident of the area I know it’s almost 65 years of our affiliation with Pakistan we haven’t got even a penny…..where is the royalty of Indus River, The Royalty of Tourism, and The Royalty of Sost Dry Port?????? Do you have the answers????So please please don't make a joke of this Man Made disaster….. We have lost everything our education system is totally destroyed our generation will have to suffer for 100s of years ….is there anyone who will stand by us???? NO NO NO one nor the President nor the Prime Minister nor the nor the so called leaders and even nor the arrogant Generalzzzzzz It will never ever satisfy the Hungry Crocodiles of the states After a huge failure of the Government organization especially the corrupt FWO again Government is again is trying to silence the locals …the rocks shown in this picture is not the real hurdle for the out flow …the huge boulders are far down from this rock …I am damn sure the FWO has no courage to do this job …..Here I want to clear one thing that Government will definitely request for the help of Chinese engineers which they had refused at very beginning ….How poor performance the concerned authorities have shown still they are acting like a Deaf and Dumb .We are not begging for money we need rehabilitation in a true sense so that we can stand back to earn our dally livelihood…….so please don’t show your intellect act while commenting just go for the realities. Our only demand is a pure judicial inquiry of the issue and the criminals ( the Ex. Governor Kaira the Ex. Chief of NDMA General Farooq) must be punished for their criminal negligence…..May God give them their rewards of their Sins. ( Ameen)Dee Jay Gulmit Gojal Hunza
More updates please Dave – what's happening?!Thanks for all your work.
Dee jay … wah bhai wah..dave this is a man made disaster though it looks like a natural one.my sympathies for the locals…javid how abt organising a 20-20 on the saddle??
@Dee Jay,I have never advocated a Dam. I belong to the school that believes it is a man made disaster due to technical and political insufficiency. There was no need to build a spillway. Been a High Altitude Mountaineer and in love with this great land. Some of my closest friends are from this area. I still believe that the saddle has to be tackled first.sharpl
Dear Brig Saheb, How do we reclaim the valley?
Brig Saheb… looks like u have been sking downhill from siachen…Pl tell us how u propose to reclaim the saddle
I my view the saddle is the spillway wall that is trapping the water in the lake. So far it has not eroded beyond a point and therefore made no positive difference in the lake level.As regards downhill skiing, no acid remarks please. Remaining within decency to discuss a human and ecological disaster would be a better preposition.
Brigadier Sir, u have still not explained the solution to the problem of the saddle. How do we reclaim the valley ??
we have no trust on FWO can do something batter, they have a long history with KKKH to just time pass.what would be the future of the valley, everyone is worried about…
From the study posted regarding flow dates, we're in the vicinity of 50% peak flow. Thus the Hunza's flow will increase by approximately 100% over the next month, or so.
Dave,Please comment in retrospect if the decision to build a spillway of this size was right in the first place? I am asking this question in view of the projections in which peak flows increasing by 100% ( double of what they are now)are yet to come. Breaking of the Dam is likely to be even more catastrophic in that case.
I think there should be a certain degree of realism about the ability to construct a spillway of significant proportions through the dam in the time available. Making a significant impact on the depth of the spillway (i.e. say 10m deeper) would have involved vastly more equipment since the excavation width at the top would have needed to have been correspondingly greater. Also the length of the spillway would also have needed to be increased considerably. Therefore doubling the depth of the spillway could conceivably have required the removal of 10 times the amount of material. So instead of 4 excavators, perhaps 40 would have been required, which simply could not have been operated in such a confined area. Also the time available would have been reduced by the earlier overtopping.
A doubling of the outflow through the existing spillway is unlikely to result in a raising of the water level in the lake by more than 1m and probably by not more than 0.5m. For those people whose houses would be flooded by this water level rise, this is obviously devastating, but widening (rather than deepening) the channel to prevent the water level rising in the lake seems nigh on impossible to carry out safely.
Dave,If, as appears increasingly likely, the spillway carries the peak summer flow without 'catastrophic' failure, what do you believe will be the response of the authorities to the situation. Clearly a deepening or widening of the spillway could be carried out, but if this does not initiate failure, a substantial lake will inevitably remain. What approach has been used to initiate 'catastophic' failure in other cases and has this process been managed to prevent loss of life and minimise damage to infrastructure? Clearly if manmade activities lead to significant loss of life or major long-duration damage to infrastructure, the authorities would be rightly called to account.
I'm dying for some updated pictures!!! Will any of you currently in the area please go and shoot some and post them pleasssssssssseeee!