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8 July 2010
Can Attabad fail?
A number of commenters here have suggested that the structure of the dam is such that it cannot now fail due to the presence of the large boulders. So I thought I’d write a short post exploring whether this is actually the case. I believe that it can still fail, and indeed that eventually it probably will, but I have no idea as to the likely time-frame. The reasons that …
7 July 2010
New EO-1 ALI satellite image of Attabad
NASA have released a new satellite image of the Attabad landslide and lake, collected by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) instrument on the EO-1 satellite on Saturday 2nd July. The images are excellent, showing both the lake and the dam and spillway with only limited cloud cover (note that north is to the right on these images): The box indicates the following close-up image: They also link to this site, …
6 July 2010
Attabad – no substantial changes in the lake level reported by NDMA
Thanks to various commenters on the Attabad threads for their incredibly helpful and interesting contributions – this is something that I really value – and also for seeking out the latest information on the situation now that my usual feed has dried up. NDMA posted a report dated 5th July (but helpfully they got the file name wrong – thanks to Divalent for tracking down the right one here) that …
3 July 2010
Attabad – Analysis of NDMA data on lake level
Yesterday’s daily update from NDMA contained a new, and very welcome addition: a graph showing lake level, starting 29th May (the date of overtopping). The y-axis is slightly confusingly labeled on the sheet (the label having been added later by the looks of it), but is clearly the lake level (in inches – NB 1 inch = 2.54 cm) above the spillway base level at the time of overtopping: There …
1 July 2010
Attabad – limited information flows
Unfortunately, I am not currently receiving any updates on the situation at Attabad, so it is hard to post on what is going on. The best that I can do at the moment is to report the various figures from the media, although it is far from clear as to whether these are reliable. The last set of data that I received from the site was for 25th June. At …
28 June 2010
New images of spillway at Attabad
Unfortunately I cannot access images from Attabad at the moment, but the Pamir Times has this morning published a set that are well worth a look. The images are here. Interestingly, they also note that the water level has reduced by 13 inches (about 33 cm) over the last two days, which is a promising sign. Unfortunately I cannot validate these figures at the moment. The images seem to show …
26 June 2010
Attabad – situation as of 25th June,
NB I have updated this post, and changed the title. Apologies for the lack of posts over the last few days – I have been in a meeting in Bermuda that has left little time to tend to this blog. Meanwhile, although small scale blasting of the spillway has reportedly continued, as of yesterday the lake level at Attabad is continued to rise by 10 to 20 cm per day, …
22 June 2010
Blasting of boulders has begun at Attabad
Yesterday NDMA started the process of blasting the boulders in the channel at Attabad. This image, from Focus, shows the state of the channel and the reconstructed access track: One of the blasts yesterday was on the boulder at the entrance to the channel, visible on the left of the image above. This image shows the crews drilling the blast holes: Clearly this boulder is not the main issue in …
20 June 2010
Attabad – a decision has been taken to blast
It appears that a decision has now been taken to attempt to blast the key boulders controlling the flow at Attabad, with suggestions now being made that blasts will begin tomorrow (Monday). This is a brave decision by NDMA – and I wish them luck. The context appears to be a combination of the continued exasperation of the local people about the lack or resolution of the situation, and the …
18 June 2010
River flows at Attabad
Thanks to Dr David Archer of the University of Newcastle for an analysis of the dates of peak flows on the Hunza. The analysis is for Danyor (sometimes spelt “Dainyore”), which is near to Gilgit downstream of Attabad (there is no hydrograph data for Attabad itself), but it provides a clear insight into the current vs maximum flow in the river. Danyor (Dainyore) Bridge (from here) This table shows …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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