FOCUS have kindly provided an update on the state of affairs at Attabad, and NDMA have also posted online their statistics for 22nd May (note this is now two days out of date).  The freeboard graph looks like this: Key points:1. The Focus data (which has consistently been the most reliable) indicates a freeboard of 1.15 metres on 23rd, with the water level increasing at about 80 cm per day, …

Although all eyes, and increasingly those of the media (which is showing considerable interest in this blog), are on Attabad, other landslides are happening around the world as we enter the rainy season in many landslide prone areas of the Northern Hemisphere.  In the last few days a number of significant landslide events have occurred: 1. A landslide-induced rail crash in China this morning.Xinhua reports that an 8000 cubic metre, …

The situation at Attabad is now completely confused, so apologies for the lack of posts and updates, including to the monitoring site.  For all the right reasons Focus have now stopped collecting their daily data because the site is too dangerous.  The last measurement was before the GLOF, and the actual impact of that event is very unclear.  Meanwhile various news agencies in Pakistan posted suggestions that the lake had …

Updated: some newspapers in Pakistan yesterday reported that overtopping at Attabad wss imminent.  The news reports suggest that a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) today raised the water level to 358 feet (109 metres), which would be within 1 metre of the spillway.  The GLOF has also been reported by the Pamir Times. It now appears that the rise was about 10 feet (3.3 metres).  I am awaiting data to …

As the water level at Attabad approaches the spillway, several people have asked that I reposrt the links to the report and presentation that I prepared after my field visit to the site in February.  So here they are: ReportPresentation (should also be viewable below) 10_03 Attabad http://www.authorstream.com/player/player.swf?p=393289_634096013246356250 See more presentations by Dr_Dave | Upload your own PowerPoint presentations This is the presentation that I gave to NDMA in Islamabad.  It is …

The water level at Attabad is now within ten metres of the base of the spillway at the saddle, and continues to rise at about 90 to 100 cm per day.  Thus, water flow through the spillway is now about ten days away, or possibly less.  So what will happen when water flow starts?  Regular readers will know that I have been continually pressing the authorities to assume that a …

I have today revamped the monitoring website of the Attabad landslide in Hunza, Pakistan to make the display of information more straightforward as we enter the end game of this situation.  In the last day or so there have been three critical developments: 1. Seepage is increasing rapidlyToday’s seepage figure is 2.53 cubic metres per second – that is a substantial increase on yesterday, as the graph below shows: 2. …

Please click here for the most recent update on the Attabad landslide The lake behind the landslide at Attabad in Hunza, Pakistan continues to fill, meaning that we are probably only a fortnight or so away from the maximum point.  I have not had an update from either NDMA or FOCUS for 48 hours, so am unsure as to how things have developed in the last two days.  However, The …

The lake at Attabad continues to fill quite rapidly, with the water level now rising at close to 1 metre per day, as this graph using Focus data shows: The remaining freeboard is now 15.5 metres.  At the current rate of increase, water will flow across the spillway on about 22nd May.  However, Young and Hewitt (1990) provided a hydrograph of flow in the Hunza (apologies for the poor quality …

The Pamir Times is running an interesting story today that clearly puts me in my place!  Here it is: “Hunza River lake would not burst, David Petley’s report is wrong”:  Asad Zamin, DC GilgitPosted on May 5, 2010 by Pamir Times PT Report Gilgit, May 4: The report prepared by Dr. David Petley is wrong and the lake formed on Hunza River is not going to burst. Government experts have …