May 21, 2015
Sholes Glacier from our runoff measurement station above right.
Glaciers are a critical water resource in the North Cascades of Washington for hydropower, irrigation , municipal supply and aquatic life. In dry summers glaciers play an even larger role in the overall water budget and maintaining suitable aquatic conditions. The summer of 2015 will pose particular challenges due to the drought emergency that is likely to persist and we will be investigating the role glaciers play. During the last three years in an ongoing study with the Nooksack Indian Tribe we have been working on quantifying the role glaciers play in that watershed. Glaciers comprise the headwaters of the Nooksack River and are a critical source of summer discharge and greatly influence summer stream temperatures. There are nine species of salmon in the watershed that the Nooksack Indian Tribe depends on for cultural, subsistence, and economic uses. Climate change is an additional new threat to salmon that has caused and will continue to cause an increase in winter flow, decreased summer baseflow, and increased summer water temperatures as noted by (Isaak et al, 2011). Abatzaglou et al (2014) note a reduction in summer and autumn precipitation coupled with increased potential evapotranspiration causing larger climatic water deficits over the past four decades in the Pacific Northwest.
This post will focus on the changing impact of glaciers on streamflow and the evolving water temperature threat. The Nooksack River watershed has three significant watersheds, South Fork, Middle Fork and North Fork. The South Fork has no glaciers. The Middle Fork has four significant glaciers and 2% of the watershed area above the USGS gage is glaciated. The North Fork has 12 significant glaciers that cover 6% of the watershed area above the USGS gage. This difference in glacier cover allows identification of the role of glaciers when combined with measurements of melt on and runoff from the glaciers. Here we examine stream discharge and water temperature at USGS gages on each stream to illustrate the different response to 12 warm weather events during the summers of 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013. During each of these periods we have, along with Oliver Grah and Jezra Beaulieu, working for the Nooksack Tribe, been observing the ablation and runoff directly from the glaciers. The largest area of glaciers are those on Mount Baker, a strato volcano that is the highest mountain in the North Cascades. Pelto and Brown (2012) note that terminus observations on the nine principal Mount Baker glaciers, 1984–2009, indicate retreat ranging from 240 to 520 m, with a mean of 370 m or 14 m/year. Pelto and Brown (2012) observed that this is the result of a sustained mass balance loss averaging -0.5 m/year during the 1990-2010 period. This equates to an 11-m loss in glacier thickness, 12–20% of the entire 1990 volume of glaciers on Mount Baker. This summer we will for the 32nd consecutive year be measuring glacier mass balance on Mount Baker.
During each of these warm weather events ablation was measured on glaciers in the basin. For stream discharge, a 10% increase is set as the key threshold for significant response to each warm weather event. For the North Fork 10 of 12 warm weather events exceeded the limit, in the Middle Fork 4 of 12 events had a significant response and for the South Fork none of the 12 events led to a 10% flow increase. It is apparent that warm weather events increase glacier melt, thus enhancing flow in the North Fork. In a basin without glacier runoff the hydrologic system consistently experiences reduced discharge.
2009 stream discharge variation of the three Nooksack forks, warm water events within ellipse.
2010 stream discharge variation of the three Nooksack forks, warm water events within ellipse.
For water temperature, an increase of 2° C is the threshold of significance used for response to warm weather events. In each the North Fork and Middle Fork, 2 of 12 events exceeded this threshold, and for the South Fork 12 of 12 events exceeded this threshold, each event is a gold ellipse on the charts below. Warm weather events consistently generate a significant increase in stream water temperature only in the non-glaciated South Fork Basin. During 6 of these 12 warm events, runoff measurements below Sholes Glacier and ablation measurements on Sholes and Easton Glacier indicate daily ablation ranging from 0.05-0.06 meters per day, which for the North Fork currently yields 9.5-11 m3/second. This is 40-50% of the August mean discharge of 24 m3/second, despite glaciers only covering 6% of the watershed. Increased glacier discharge largely offset the impact of increased air temperature on stream water temperature during the warm weather events. In the charts below note the red line with diamond markers that is the South Fork stream temperature and the in the graph above the top brightest blue line that is North Fork discharge and what happens during the warm events, gold ellipses. Also note the South Fork discharge bottom blue line in the graph above does not respond nor does the North Fork stream temperature red line with triangles, below.
The frequency of significant response of each watershed to the 12 warm weather events.
As the glaciers continue to retreat the North Fork will trend first toward the more limited impact of the Middle Fork and then the highly sensitive South Fork where warm weather leads to declining streamflow and warming temperatures. Our ongoing measurements of daily runoff and daily streamflow below Sholes Glacier allow determination of the contribution of glaciers to the North Fork Nooksack, which peaked in 2014 at 80% of total streamflow. Reductions in glacier runoff will put stress on the salmon in the watershed. The Washington Dept of Fish and Wildlife monitors the salmon population, which in the North Fork migrate 40 km upstream of the junction with Nooksack River to Nooksack Falls. The salmon population which is threatened, shows no sign of recovery in the last decade, the good returns in 2002 reflect good water conditions in 1999-2000 for salmon fry. Continued glacier loss and reduced summer streamflow will lead to a situation similar to the Skykomish River where the number of low flow days has sharply increased. The retreating glaciers include the Sholes, Roosevelt,Deming and Mazama.
WFDW Governor’s Salmon Recovery Office data for North Fork Nooksack.