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7 September 2017
This Looks Bad- Very Bad.
My hopes that Irma would turn just east of Florida are diminishing tonight. If the eye stayed just offshore the damage would be FAR less than a landfall. Remember that those 170 mph winds are concentrated right around the eye, and if that eyewall stayed offshore the winds would not likely go above hurricane force except in gusts along the coast. The worst scenario I can imagine is a Cat 4 …
6 September 2017
Catastrophe Coming for Barbuda
Irma has become a real monster tonight, with the pressure dropping to 916 mb and winds of 185 mph with gusts well over 200 mph. The pressure dropped significantly in the late afternoon and evening but it often takes a few hours for the winds to increase. For Barbuda, it does not matter, the island is about to be hit with 185 mph winds and that means few structures or …
27 August 2017
Read These Two Essays to Really Understand What Happened In Houston Last Night
When you work as a meteorologist or a reporter, you accept that there will be times when your sleep, hunger, and comfort come far behind the importance of serving the public. Last night was one of those moments for those at the NWS in Houston, and the reporters/meteorologists at Houston TV stations. At one point the NWS office had 4 tornado warnings and at least as many Flash Flood Emergency warnings …
19 June 2017
Fire & Rain, and Heat as Well.
Intense heat, with low humidity has led to a horrible catastrophe in Portugal. The hot and dry weather in Europe led to a firestorm in Portugal that killed at least 60 people. A strong upper level high pressure system will stay over the area tomorrow and little or no rain is in sight. This high pressure is bringing warm weather all the way into the UK with highs tomorrow in …
5 October 2016
Did The Euro Model Just Pull Another Forecast Coup?
Matthew is gaining strength again tonight, and Florida and South Carolina are still going to see a significant (perhaps severe) storm. If the eye stays out to sea, it will not be as bad as it could be, but if it crosses just inland, much greater damage and a major storm surge is likely. Still a rather large disagreement between the higher res. regional models and the global models today. The …
24 August 2016
Big Trouble Brewing For Southeast U.S.??
Tropical Update : I’m not going to post any specific model data since there is still quite a bit of disagreement, and any individual run this far out is worthless, but that said: My concern that a tropical cyclone will threaten the SE U.S. in 5-7 days is growing rapidly. The system is looking much healthier on the satellite images tonight. Increased convection and shear seems less. The wind shear …
6 July 2016
Monster Typhoon Nepartak Approaching Taiwan
Radar from the Taiwan Weather Service shows the first rain bands approaching Taiwan, Winds are at 150 knots near the center of Nepartak, but it should weaken some before landfall, as it encounters the mountains of Taiwan, and slightly cooler water. It will still be a very dangerous storm though, and it will cross into mainland China, and drop very heavy rainfall over the same area that experienced severe flooding …
10 July 2015
Super Typhoon Headed Toward 23 Million People in Shanghai
The latest track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center shows Super Typhoon Chan-Hom passing very near Shanghai, and landfall will likely be south of the city, putting Shanghai in the path of the highest storm surge. Winds are estimated at 120 knots, and while it will weaken some before landfall, it will still likely produce a major storm surge. This storm looks very healthy on satellite images tonight, and it …
15 June 2015
Severe Flood Threat for Texas and Oklahoma Rising
Virtually all of the global and regional numerical weather models are showing the potential for very heavy rainfall from what will soon be Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf. Even if this region had not had historic flooding in May, this would be a big deal, but with the soggy ground, we are now looking at the potential for a very severe and costly flood event. There are some indications …
4 May 2015
Tropical Cyclone Brewing In the Atlantic??
A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.