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14 December 2015
November Hottest Ever, and Christmas Likely To bring Record Warmth in The East
The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week, and linger through the weekend, but after that the temps. will once again soar. The map below shows the average 5 day temperatures from the 21st to the 26th. Highs will be more than 10 degrees …
10 December 2015
U.S. Has Warmest Autumn on Record
Temperatures across the U.S. (at 3 PM) were over 30 degrees above average in North Dakota this afternoon. With dozens of cities reporting temperatures of 12-28 degrees above average. The map below is based on the average weather (for 3 PM on December 9th) over the last 30 years. The maps below show the temperatures over the last 30 and the last 90 days compared to normal. The NOAA Climate …
4 December 2015
El Nino In A Can
Click the image above to see a video from the GFDL CM2.6 climate model. This is NOT this year’s El Nino. When you start a climate model in which the ocean and the land and atmosphere can interact with each other, weather systems develop on their own. So do hurricanes and blizzards, and yes El Nino events happen as well. This El Nino happened naturally about 80+ years into the simulation. …
21 October 2015
September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record
September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …
19 October 2015
Jaw Dropping Ignorance Versus Science Fact
How ignorant people see the world: How someone with a little bit of critical thinking ability sees it: This ends today’s lesson. Note: I’m at the National Weather Association conference here in Oklahoma City, and I’ll have more to talk about regarding that later tonight. The guy below hired me (here in OKC in Jan. 1980) for my first on-air weather job. Why does Merrell Teller have less gray hair …
14 September 2015
The Alarming Thing about History
The alarming thing about history is its seemingly inevitable habit of repeating itself. This alone is a good reason to learn as much of it as you have time to cram in, but as every history professor tells his students, the why is more important, than the what and and when. That’s why Timothy Snyder’s thoughtful piece in the NY Times this weekend is so worth reading.
25 August 2015
Smoke From Western Fires Spreads Across the U.S.
The image above shows the smoke from the wildfires burning across Washington, Oregon and Northern California. It is possible this smoke will reach the Eastern Seaboard, behind a late summer cool front that is exiting the coast today. The visible image below clearly shows the smoke plumes from the Washington fires this afternoon. A patch of dense smoke is also visible today courtesy the NASA Terra satellite over Newfoundland.
22 July 2015
Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky
The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …
20 July 2015
NOAA: June 2015 Hottest On Record Globally
From NOAA: The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for the month of June since record keeping began in 1880. The first half of the year (January–June) was also record warm. (Last year 2014, was the hottest year on record, but so far 2015 is beating it, and with the strong El Nino underway, and CO2 levels past 400 ppm, the …
17 July 2015
State of The Climate Report Released
Every summer for the past 25 years the AMS publishes the State of the Climate Report in BAMS. I usually curl up in a cool place and read it and you can as well since the AMS has made it free to all to read. this year’s report has plenty of updated (and not good) news about our planet. From NOAA: In 2014, the most essential indicators of Earth’s changing …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.