14 December 2015
The long-range guidance is showing strong indications that the incredible December warmth in the Eastern U.S. will continue to the end of the month. A blast of cold air will arrive later this week, and linger through the weekend, but after that the temps. will once again soar. The map below shows the average 5 day temperatures from the 21st to the 26th. Highs will be more than 10 degrees C (18°F) above average in many areas, and records will almost certainly tumble! A cool front will be moving across the Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve, and Christmas Day, with showers along and ahead of it.
I rarely make predictions for 10 days out, but there is very close agreement today between the long-range U.S. and European and Canadian ensembles. This agreement has also persisted over several days, so confidence is unusually high. The great El Nino warmth of December 2015 will likely continue into January. Late word from NASA this afternoon that November was the warmest (by far!) of any November on record globally. This after October’s record, and there is now no doubt that 2015 will be the hottest year on record, beating the previous record (last year) by a large margin.
FYI: Those of you in the Mountain West will continue to see cold and stormy winter.
Image from WX Bell showing NOAA GFS model long range average temps.