GOES images show TS Lee is a VERY wet tropical system. The slow movement increases the potential for over a foot of rain in parts of the Southeast U.S.

Rainfall forecast from an average of several runs of the WRF model.

The NWP guidance continues to indicate very heavy rains over the Gulf Coast and some models are squeezing out over 15 inches of rainfall in spots. It seems likely that this system will move very slowly and still be dumping heavy rains over Alabama on Tuesday. If the past is a guide ( and it is), then we could see flooding well inland from Lee. As it was with Katrina, forget about the winds, because even if Lee makes it to minimal hurricane strength, it’s the water that will be the story.

The huge amount of convection in the Gulf, all the way down to the Yucatan Peninsula is very worrying. There is a significant threat that the U.S. may suffer two weather catastrophes within two weeks of each other. Don’t forget about the Texas drought either, 80% of the state is now in exceptional (read that as incredible) drought.