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25 September 2011

La Nina Is Back- What it means for the upcoming winter.

Colder Than Normal The temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have reached -0.7C in the Nina 3.4 region, and anything below -0.5 C is considered La Nina conditions. There seems little doubt now that La Nina conditions will prevail over the upcoming NH winter, and the signature of La Nina is very evident in the weekly sea surface temp. anomalies. The large area of cooler than normal water stretching westward …

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21 September 2011

Still Open Season on Hurricanes

  Tropical storm Ophelia is looking a little better organized this afternoon with winds near 60 mph just outside the center. While it is feeling like fall across much of North America, the tropical waters are still quite warm and we will likely see a couple of more storms. The risk of landfall seems pretty low as the NWP models are all re-curving the system into the North Atlantic after …

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12 September 2011

Remains of Katia Hit Ireland and UK

The remains of Hurricane Katia have brought gales gusting to near hurricane force across the northern areas of the UK today. The UK Met Office has several severe weather warnings up. A close friend in Wales reports a very windy and wet day. The BBC has more here. In spite of the cold water that Katia passed over, it takes awhile for these systems to spin down and it long …

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9 September 2011

Rainfall Totals from Lee

The heavy rains from Lee are falling on the very saturated ground that resulted from Irene, and severe flooding continues from Fairfax in Virginia, to Pennsylvania and New York tonight. It should start drying out some tomorrow and fairly dry weather is on the way for the next 7 days, unless TS Maria pulls a surprise on us. Update: Dave Petley over at the Landslide blog has a great post …

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4 September 2011

Quick Update on Tropical Storm Lee

    TS Lee is dumping very heavy rains along the coast tonight and moving very slowly onshore west of Baton Rouge, LA. The heavy rains are forecast to move into central AL on Sunday and then into North AL (my location) by Sunday night. While the winds may never allow Lee to be called a hurricane, the strong Canadian high pressure system moving down from the north may give …

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2 September 2011

Tropical Storm Lee May Swamp Louisiana- and Maybe MS. & Alabama

  The NWP guidance continues to indicate very heavy rains over the Gulf Coast and some models are squeezing out over 15 inches of rainfall in spots. It seems likely that this system will move very slowly and still be dumping heavy rains over Alabama on Tuesday. If the past is a guide ( and it is), then we could see flooding well inland from Lee. As it was with …

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1 September 2011

No doubt about it- There is trouble brewing in the Gulf

  Strong tropical wave in the Gulf along with satellite based wind obs (ASCAT). From CIMMS. Update: TD 13 has formed and advisories have started from NHC. There is growing concern among my fellow forecasters tonight over the tropical wave in the Gulf. A late recon plane report indicates a tropical depression may be forming and numerical weather prediction models (NWP) are indicating development into a tropical storm over the …

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28 August 2011

Is This Tropical Storm Katia??

The track/intensity models are indicating development, but hint at a real possibility of an eventual NW track before it approaches North America. I suspect it will be upgraded to a named storm within 36 hours. The next 2 weeks are the most active of the hurricane season.

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25 August 2011

What To Expect From Irene If You Are In Her Path

Hurricane Irene remains a dangerous hurricane, and overnight numerical weather prediction models have shifted a bit back tot he west. This increases the risk of a land falling hurricane in New Jersey or on Long Island, followed by a track across the highly populated areas of New England. It’s possible that Irene may pass near or west of New York City and Boston. While Irene will start to pass over …

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Is This Tropical Storm Jose??

  The tropical wave off Africa has intensified and is looking very healthy this evening. It even looks like an anticyclone has developed aloft over the wave, and we may have tropical storm Jose soon (if not already). Water vapor imagery from the European weather satellite also shows little dry air in the region, although there is some dry air to the north of the system (not enough to seriously …

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