30 August 2023

The Smoky Summer of 23 Will Linger In our Noses and Memories

Posted by Dan Satterfield

While all eyes have been on the two hurricanes, the wildfire smoke is still impacting many areas. It is quite visible today on the GOES images. The fires in the NW Territories of Canada this summer have released around 277 times the amount of carbon that area of Canada emitted in 2021! I’ve been a synoptic meteorologist for 43 years, and I’ve never seen a summer like this one.

This memorable summer is not over yet. While meteorological summer ends tomorrow at Midnight, we will see an early autumn heat wave from Kentucky, to Boston, to Quebec next week. The model guidance shows a strong high-pressure system in the mid-levels of the troposphere by Tuesday and this will bring temps. above 32C as far north as Toronto, and perhaps into Montreal! Let’s hope no one throws a match out the window in Quebec next week.

Global model forecast for next week. This is long-range, but the odds are, that it will be a fairly good forecast. Click image for a larger version.

Burying the Lead
We meteorologists are all talking about the sudden rapid intensification last night of Hurricane Idalia. Make no mistake, the hot tub warm water in the Gulf played a role in that. We live in a different climate now. It’s a meaner and more dangerous one, especially if you are poor.

Look how much farther north the 25C°C isotherm has moved in the last 40 years. The hotter water is farther north now as the planet warms.

The annual change in the position of the 25°C isotherm over the last 40 years. From Kris Karnauskas at the Oceans and Climate lab at Colorado University in 2021. Thanks to Nahel Belgherze @WxNB_ for posting it.

Note: Sorry for the lack of posts. There has been a technical issue, but it seems to be fixed. I will post much more often now. I am teaching a uni class and my TV duties keep me busy, but there is so much to talk about!