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29 May 2010
Attabad: overtopping has begun
The media are reporting that water has now “entered the spillway” – i.e. that overtopping has begun. The report, which is from the Chinese Agency Xinhua, carries a rather strange quote from an official from NDMA: “The next 12 hours could be crucial as the water flow would reach its maximum intensity,” commented an official of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the organization mainly responsible for the overall …
28 May 2010
Attabad: freeboard report 28th May
The media in Pakistan are reporting that the freeboard is now 2 feet (61 cm). Assuming that this was taken at the normal measuring time (i.e. 3 pm local time) the freeboard graph looks like this: Jean Schneider, who is on site and flew over the spillway today, reports that overtopping should begin overnight.
New images and maps of Attabad
Whilst we wait for news from Pakistan, here are two new resources that readers may find useful. First, NASA have released a new Aster image of the lake site, collected in the last few days. This is available here, with a link to my blog (thanks to them for this). The image shows the manner in which the lake has extended in the last few weeks – NASA have helpfully …
Attabad: Overtopping is now likely to be imminent
It is unfortunate timing that the likely day of overtopping has fallen on a Friday, the holy day in Pakistan, meaning that flow of information is impeded. As a result I have not yet had an update for today on the lake level. Jean Schneider of BOKU visited the site yesterday by helicopter and measured the freeboard at 2.25 feet, which is about 70 cm. I am not sure what …
27 May 2010
Attabad: the freeboard is now reportedly about 1,3 metres
The latest NDMA figures suggest that the freeboard is down to about 4.3 feet (1.31 metres) as of 3 pm today. That is a reduction of about 70 cm on the day, meaning that we are probably less than two days from the point of overtopping: I am reasonably confident of these values as the Focus geologists took this picture yesterday of the spillway: The circled boulder is the crest …
Attabad: update for 27th May
Filling of the lake behind the slide at Attabad continues, with the reported freeboard being 1.98 metres as of yesterday afternoon. I have not yet received a value for today – I will update the figures when this comes through. For now the freeboard time graph looks like this: This would suggest a likely date of overtopping of 28th to 29th May, but once again caveats apply. It is now …
26 May 2010
Attabad: update report for 26th May
The combined monitoring effort appears now to be providing consistent measurements of the remaining freeboard, and these are now being used in the media, which is helpful. As of late last night the reported freeboard was 8.8 feet, which is 2.56 metres. This provides a freeboard – time graph that looks like this: This suggests that we are still on course for overtopping on about 27th or 28th May, although …
25 May 2010
Attabad – a bizarre race between two processes
Yesterdays “coalition” resurvey of the spillway and water level now appears to provide a definitive freeboard value. As of 8 am this morning the freeboard was 3.027 metres, representing an increase of water level of 1.09 metres in the last 24 hours. This elevated rate of water level rise probably reflects the warmer weather in the area in the last few days, which will be driving snowmelt. I have recalculated …
24 May 2010
A further update on Attabad
Important update: a combined Focus and FWO team have now resurveyed the freeboard and have agreed that there correct freeboard figure was 11.5 feet (3.5 metres) this morning. This means that overtopping is likely to be a few more days away, although failure could still occur at any time. NDMA have now released their daily report for yesterday, so I have replotted the freeboard graph (see note above): You will …
24th May update on Attabad (post now complete)
FOCUS have kindly provided an update on the state of affairs at Attabad, and NDMA have also posted online their statistics for 22nd May (note this is now two days out of date). The freeboard graph looks like this: Key points:1. The Focus data (which has consistently been the most reliable) indicates a freeboard of 1.15 metres on 23rd, with the water level increasing at about 80 cm per day, …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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