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11 June 2010
The continued threat posed by landslides at Attabad
Attention continues to be focused upon the state of the spillway at Attabad, and in particular the likely impact of the increase in flow we might see over the next few weeks. Yesterday’s images from Focus showed that slow evolution of the spillway continues, with the lake level reported to have dropped only by a:n inch (2.5 cm): However, we must not lose sight of the potential for other failure …
10 June 2010
Attabad spillway video
Thanks to a number of people for drawing my attention to the Hunzaonline video on youtube that shows the spillway in action. The caption indicates that this was collected on the 8th June: Three observations about this video: It shows that the major restriction on flow is still the large boulder at the saddle of the spillway; A second boulder has formed substantive constriction downstream as well, but this is …
9 June 2010
Slowing evolution of the spillway at Attabad
Once again I am grateful for Focus Humanitarian Assistance for sending the latest photos of the spillway at Attabad. The rate of change new seems to be slowing as flow is being controlled by the large boulders at the head of the channel. This pair show the downslope side of the channel – the left hand image was taken on 7th June and the right hand image a day later: …
7 June 2010
Latest image of the spillway at Attabad
The wonderful people at Focus have provided an image of the state of the spillway at Attabad that is very instructive. This was taken today: The current state of play is I think as follows. Flow appears to be constrained by two blockages but, as a commenter has noted, one is a rock spur out of the channel. The blockage appears to have formed a small waterfall / rapid. Downstream …
Attabad – an increasingly difficult hazard to manage
Apologies to all who emailed and left messages over the weekend requesting updates. FWO data collected at 8 am on Saturday suggests that the rate of flow was 124.6 cumecs, whilst the Pamir Times reported yesterday that it was 131.7 cumecs. If so, the discharge time graph looks like this: Thus, the discharge is apparently stabilising. Various media reports from the site itself suggest that downward erosion of the channel …
4 June 2010
Attabad: spillway flow update of 08:30 this morning
There is a mass of confusing and contradictory information about the state of flow in the Attabad spillway, but the FWO data appears to be consistent at the moment. The latest data, again via Dr Sadiq, is that flow was 3700 cusecs (105 cumecs) at 08:00 local time this morning. This makes the graph look like this: This suggests that we are still seeing an incremental increase in flow. However, …
Photos of the development of the situation at Attabad
Focus have kindly provided a new set of images of the situation at Attabad with respect to the spillway. I think that these images were taken yesterday. Most importantly, here is an overview image of the spillway: It is helpful to compare this with the image of the spillway from 1st June (right hand image): It is clear that the situation has developed considerably over the last few days. The …
Attabad: a different set of discharge data
Thanks to Aftab Sadiq of the School if Civil and Environmental Engineering at NUST for passing on a revised set of spillway discharge data. This set was collected by the FWO. It is almost identical to that published here previously, with one important exception. The graph of discharge against time is as follows (correct to 17:00 yesterday, local time): The difference between this and the data that I have published …
3 June 2010
Attabad appears to have shifted to the next stage
In brief, the discharge at Attabad appears to have dramatically increased in the last few hours, as the graph below shows: I am trying to find out more information, but it appears to have shifted to a new phase of activity. Inflows and outflow may be approaching a balance. Downstream communities need to be very alert now. More as soon as I get it.
2 June 2010
Attabad – so why hasn’t it breached yet?
Several people have emailed to ask why the lake has yet to breach. Well, I would like to emphasise two things – first, that every landslide is different, so predicting the behaviour of any particular slide is effectively impossible. Second, there is a peculiarity about the spillway that appears to be delaying the breach event. Regular readers (of which there are now several thousand each day I think – thanks …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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