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27 May 2010
Attabad: update for 27th May
Filling of the lake behind the slide at Attabad continues, with the reported freeboard being 1.98 metres as of yesterday afternoon. I have not yet received a value for today – I will update the figures when this comes through. For now the freeboard time graph looks like this: This would suggest a likely date of overtopping of 28th to 29th May, but once again caveats apply. It is now …
26 May 2010
Attabad: update report for 26th May
The combined monitoring effort appears now to be providing consistent measurements of the remaining freeboard, and these are now being used in the media, which is helpful. As of late last night the reported freeboard was 8.8 feet, which is 2.56 metres. This provides a freeboard – time graph that looks like this: This suggests that we are still on course for overtopping on about 27th or 28th May, although …
25 May 2010
Attabad – a bizarre race between two processes
Yesterdays “coalition” resurvey of the spillway and water level now appears to provide a definitive freeboard value. As of 8 am this morning the freeboard was 3.027 metres, representing an increase of water level of 1.09 metres in the last 24 hours. This elevated rate of water level rise probably reflects the warmer weather in the area in the last few days, which will be driving snowmelt. I have recalculated …
24 May 2010
A further update on Attabad
Important update: a combined Focus and FWO team have now resurveyed the freeboard and have agreed that there correct freeboard figure was 11.5 feet (3.5 metres) this morning. This means that overtopping is likely to be a few more days away, although failure could still occur at any time. NDMA have now released their daily report for yesterday, so I have replotted the freeboard graph (see note above): You will …
24th May update on Attabad (post now complete)
FOCUS have kindly provided an update on the state of affairs at Attabad, and NDMA have also posted online their statistics for 22nd May (note this is now two days out of date). The freeboard graph looks like this: Key points:1. The Focus data (which has consistently been the most reliable) indicates a freeboard of 1.15 metres on 23rd, with the water level increasing at about 80 cm per day, …
23 May 2010
Attabad – less than two metres to go before water flow
Several people have asked for an update on the situation at Attabad, and a forecast of what will happen, so here goes. First, the situation as I understand it is as follows. In the last few days the availability of data on the situation on the ground has become difficult for reasons that are very understandable. However, Focus have continued to take measurements of lake depth when possible, and NDMA …
21 May 2010
Seepage at the Attabad landslide
Focus have today kindly provided a new set of measurements of the state of the Attabad landslide. I will update the monitoring site shortly, but in the meantime here is the graph of the development of seepage. The plot of seepage against time suggests that the trend in the rate of development of seepage changed on the last few days. Note how the most recent point does not fit on …
20 May 2010
New images of the Attabad dam and Spillway
The Pamir Times is now back in action after the owners were trapped on the road by the landslides caused by the recent heavy rain. Tonight they have posted a selection of images of the site taken yesterday or today – go and take a look, they are good. I will reproduce two here as they help to understand the current situation. First, this picture shows the spillway from the …
19 May 2010
I have no idea what is happening at Attabad now!
The situation at Attabad is now completely confused, so apologies for the lack of posts and updates, including to the monitoring site. For all the right reasons Focus have now stopped collecting their daily data because the site is too dangerous. The last measurement was before the GLOF, and the actual impact of that event is very unclear. Meanwhile various news agencies in Pakistan posted suggestions that the lake had …
18 May 2010
The final spillway at the Attabad landslide
The GLOF into the lake behind the Attabad landslide yesterday appears to have raised the water level by something over two metres, in addition to the increase of about a metre from the normal inflow (please see the data on my monitoring site). The upshot is that the freeboard is likely be 4 metres or less. Inflow has increased substantially as well to about 93 cubic metres per second. It …
Dave Petley is the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Hull in the United Kingdom. His blog provides commentary and analysis of landslide events occurring worldwide, including the landslides themselves, latest research, and conferences and meetings.
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