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8 March 2018
Look at What the Coastal Storms Have Done to the Chesapeake Bay
It is amazing what we can see from satellite remote sensing now. Check out what the NOAA Satellite and Information Service says about it: The Chesapeake Bay is experiencing high sediment throughout the Bay, due to several different simultaneous events. River discharge from the Susquehanna River at the north end of Bay has been high (more than 100,000 cubic feet per second) for approximately two weeks, and the high winds …
18 January 2018
2017 Was Another Year of Amazing Heat. It’s not Natural, and It IS the Greenhouse Gases
NASA and NOAA both announced their global temperature results for 2017 today. NASA says it was the second warmest year on record and NOAA which does the analysis slightly differently came up with the 3rd hottest. Interestingly, if you remove the impacts of El Nino and La Nina, 2017 was THE hottest on record (see below). Forest Vs. Trees There are only three things that affect Earth’s temperature: Incoming radiation …
15 December 2017
Take Three Minutes and Study These Two Graphs
One of the biggest science meetings on the planet is underway in New Orleans right now. The AGU meeting is huge and a LOT of newsmaking science comes out of it. This year is no different. The AMS published a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) to coincide with this conference and the AMS annual meeting that I’m looking forward to attending in Austin next month. …
12 October 2017
Roger Rabbit’s No Longer Running Accuwx. Now He’s Going to Run NOAA
This: … and my response, (written in 2013) when Accuwx started selling snake oil 45-day weather forecasts. Click here to read the post from 2013. This is not going to go over very well inside NOAA and that may be the greatest understatement of the year.
6 July 2017
GOES-16 View of the SAL around Tropical Depression 4.
The image above is from GOES-16 (Ctsy. CIRA) and you can easily see the dry dusty Saharan air to the North and east of Tropical Depression 4. This layer of dusty air is called the SAL for Saharan Air Layer, and it often inhibits tropical cyclones. It’s already impacting TD 4. The new GOES-16 continues to wow we meteorologists. Truly, a new era is underway. Update 12 AM EDT 7 July) …
29 June 2017
U.S. About to Fall Further Behind in Long Range Weather Forecasting
The Europeans are now testing a new version of their ECMWF model with a resolution of around 9 km, and so far it looks very good. Not that the present model isn’t since we forecasters now depend on it heavily for long range forecasts beyond 2-3 days. The NOAA GFS model is almost always the least accurate and that is not my subjective opinion. Look at the skill scores below …
28 May 2017
How To Get Your Science Noticed? Get The Government to Try and Cover It Up!
Raul Grijalva, the ranking member of the House Committee on Natural Resources, sent a hot letter this week to the Secretary of the Interior. It was about the removal of the first line of a USGS press release last week. The press release was about a newly published paper showing a dramatic increase in coastal flooding as sea level rises, and I wrote about it last week here. Even Richard Nixon …
15 March 2017
Properly Communicating Uncertainty Is Just as Important as Making A Good Forecast
There has been a bit of a firestorm in the last 24 hours over an AP report that the NWS decided to stick with its snowfall forecast even after last minute model guidance showed lesser amounts were likely. There’s a story in the Washington Post and Seth Borenstein at the AP broke the story. Here are some thoughts on this based on 37 years of forecasting, and I will say …
7 March 2017
Color Imagery from GOES-16 Today
More images from GOES-16 today. This is a geo-color image at 5-minute intervals. The new satellite has sensors that allow images in almost true color and it sends an image every 5 minutes vs 4 times per hour. Images every 3- seconds are possible as well. This is still non-operational test imagery. See my previous post with the first images from lighting mapper.
6 February 2017
The Graph The Daily Mail Does Not Want You To See
The Daily Mail says that NOAA is manipulating the climate data! No, really? That’s certainly a first for them. NOT. Here is a graph they published as proof. Now, there is just one tiny problem, well actually, there are a bunch of them. The Hadley (UK) data is based on an average from 1961-1990 while the NOAA data they plotted is based on 1901-2000. The baseline choice does not make …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.