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7 November 2014
El Nino Threat Diminishing?? Modoki El Nino Coming?
NOAA released an update on the El Nino Southern Oscillation this week, and the odds of an El Nino are down to 58%. One of the main reasons for this is that the atmosphere has not responded to the rather weak warming in the Eastern Pacific. El Nino is not just an ocean warming, it is an ocean atmosphere interaction and so far the atmosphere has just not picked up …
16 October 2014
The Winter Forecast Is Out, and It’s Probably Wrong!
NOAA Released the 2014/2015 winter forecast today and it is probably wrong. I’m not taking a slam at NOAA here, they will also admit to you that the odds are that this forecast will not be correct. The truth is, that any forecast beyond 5-7 days has very low skill. That said, we cannot learn to make long-range forecasts unless we try, and that’s how science works: we make …
11 August 2014
Snow,Cold, and Drought: The Coming Winter Might Be Brutal
I’ve spent the weekend looking at how the coming winter may turn out, and before I go any farther, let me say that long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. Let me repeat that: long-range forecasts can turn out to be horribly wrong. That said, there are some fascinating indications that the Eastern and Southeastern U.S. may be in for a cold and wet/icy winter, while the drought in …
17 July 2014
El Nino May Take The Stage, but His Opening Act is Not Rocking The House
Just looking at the latest on El Nino from the CPC, and I must say I’m not yet impressed. Most of the atmosphere/ocean coupled models are still forecasting an El Nino to develop, but temps in the Pacific have cooled some in the past two weeks. Perhaps more importantly, the atmosphere has not started to respond, with greater than normal rainfall continuing in the West Pacific. In an El Nino, …
30 June 2014
Yes, El Nino Is Coming But It’s Probably Not What You Think
An El Nino is probably on the way for this autumn and winter, but despite what you may have heard about floods and fires, it’s not looking (right now) as if it will be a strong one. The strength of the El Nino IS a big deal however, because weak to moderate El Nino episodes tend to have different and milder impacts on worldwide weather, than the super strong ones …
17 October 2012
Could A Record Warm NW Atlantic Bring A Cold Winter For the Northeast??
Notice how incredibly warm the Northwest Atlantic ocean is now. The warmth stretches well northward to Greenland, and out into the North Atlantic as well. Now look at the 500 millibar height anomalies for September. (The 500 millibar pressure level is about 6 km above the surface and a warmer atmosphere pushes this level higher) The height anomalies are directly related to the warmth of the atmosphere. Notice here how the warm oceans are producing …
14 August 2012
El Nino Likely This Winter- Just what that means for the winter is much more complicated!
You’re likely to hear a lot about El Nino in the coming months, and your local TV weather guru may show graphics indicating that you will have a warmer/colder/drier/snowy winter as a result. Don’t believe it, (at least hook, line and sinker) because it may very well turn out to be wrong. There are a lot of factors that will play a role on the upcoming winter in the Northern …
10 July 2012
Last 12 Months In U.S. Are Warmest On Record. (A 1 in 1.59 million event)
The NCDC released the June temperature data today and while it was the 14th warmest on record, added to the 5 months before it make the first six months of the year the warmest on record. Not only that, but it is also the warmest 12 consecutive months on record. We still had a La Nina back in the fall so the warmth of the last 12 months worldwide is even more …
6 July 2012
Strong Signs of El Nino Brewing In The Pacific (Global temps will likely jump to new records.)
Imagine you are slowly filling a bathtub with water, and are measuring how deep the water is at frequent intervals. Also imagine, that at times your dog jumps in while you’re measuring, and this of course causes you to get a higher water level. The dog gets back out, and the water level drops slightly, but not as much as it was before because the faucet is still running, and …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.