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23 October 2015
Cat 5 Hurricane Patricia Heads To Mexico with Winds Near 200 MPH. Strongest East Pacific Storm On Record!
Mexico’s Pacific Coast has rarely, if ever, been hit by a Cat 5 severe hurricane, but that is exactly what will happen tomorrow between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. A hurricane hunter dropsonde report showed winds reaching 179 knots or 206 mph at flight level near the eye and surface winds are now near 185 mph. This truly is a monster storm. It will produce a catastrophic storm surge where it makes …
21 October 2015
September Global Heat Record Smashed. 2015 Will Almost Certainly Pass 2014 as Hottest on Record
September 2015 was not just the hottest September since measurements began over 136 years ago, and it was farther above average than any other month on record. The amount above average was 0.9C, with the previous record holders coming this year as well. It’s not just a new record hot month, but a record that passed the old one by an astounding amount. The year to date is also the …
10 September 2015
Questions About El Nino Answered
The 2015 El Nino event will go down in history as one of the strongest ever, and likely as THE Strongest. While it is impossible to give an exact idea of what this will mean for your area, we can give you some likely scenarios for the upcoming winter, with more confidence in some areas than in others. There are also some misconceptions out there that I hopefully will dispel in this post! First the …
3 September 2015
More On El Nino
NCAR released this video today comparing the 1997 super El Nino with this year’s up to early August. The sea surface temps. in the Nino 3.4 region now show that the temps. have reached the 97 level. The Nino 3.4 region is the region in the Pacific that is used to measure the strength of El Nino. From NCAR: September 3, 2015 | The El Niño brewing in the tropical …
22 July 2015
Why Using El Nino to Forecast the Winter is Risky
The image above shows how very strong the developing El Nino in the Pacific, is compared to the 1997 event (which is the strongest on record). Since El Nino events usually peak in the later fall/winter, it sure looks like we are in for one of the strongest ever, if not perhaps a record breaker, but look closer at those two images. They are different. Notice the very warm water …
26 May 2015
An El Nino connection to the floods in Oklahoma and Texas?
There were more flash floods across the Hill Country of Texas into the eastern part of the state as well on Monday, and a Flash Flood Emergency was declared in the Austin area. Now, look at the sea surface temperature anomalies for the globe right now, with the signs of a developing El Nino (the warm water off south America stretching westward along the Equator), and also note the warm …
14 May 2015
NASA: Warmest Jan.-April on Record. 2015 May be New Hottest Year On Record
The previous 12 month period was also the hottest on record and this breaks that record which was set just last month. With the daily increasing signs that a significant El Nino is brewing, we seem to be on track for another warmest year on record as well. El Nino’s really heat the atmosphere, and they tend to be among the warmer years almost always. Add in the rising greenhouse …
4 May 2015
Tropical Cyclone Brewing In the Atlantic??
A tropical cyclone in early May is VERY rare in the Atlantic. Hurricane season does not start until June first, but there’s only about a 50% chance (on average) of seeing a June storm in the Atlantic Basin. That said, there are indications of a possible tropical cyclone developing east of Cuba in the next 36 hours, with several different numerical models indicating development. Some of the model guidance brings …
6 December 2014
What You Missed In Science This Week
Unfalsifiable Belief- The Dark Side of Reason This piece on a recently published paper (in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2014. DOI: 10.1037/pspp0000018) is a must read. Click the image to read it. Could this explain the faulty reasoning of those who refuse to accept the truth that greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere, and those white lines behind jet aircraft are not government mind control chemicals? What do …
26 November 2014
El Nino Modoki Style
I just finished a rather detailed piece for my station’s website about El Nino and long range forecasting. If you really want to understand what an El Nino is, and how it can help make a long range forecast, then it’s worth a read. Click the image below to read it. I warn you that it is long form, and there are 4 videos embedded that you really should watch. …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.