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15 March 2017
Properly Communicating Uncertainty Is Just as Important as Making A Good Forecast
There has been a bit of a firestorm in the last 24 hours over an AP report that the NWS decided to stick with its snowfall forecast even after last minute model guidance showed lesser amounts were likely. There’s a story in the Washington Post and Seth Borenstein at the AP broke the story. Here are some thoughts on this based on 37 years of forecasting, and I will say …