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You are browsing the archive for Landslides Mudslides.

6 June 2011

Forecasts for the 2011 global landslide season

A brief review of 201 forecasts for large-scale weather phenomena that are associated with landslides during the northern hemisphere summer

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4 May 2010

EGU Day 2 – morning landslide sessions

For this year’s EGU General Assembly I intend to only blog on talks that really catch my eye.  This morning there was a fabulous session on Landslide Forecasting with series of great talks.  Of these,  Samuele Segoni and colleagues presented a very interesting paper on a hugely ambitious project to develop a regional landslide warning system for Tuscany based on rainfall thresholds.  The project appears to be extraordinarily successful – …

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30 October 2009

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) is likely to pass across Luzon in the next 24 hours

The latest track forecasts for Typhoon Mirinae (Santi) suggest that a direct hit on Luzon is now highly likely:Mirinae is not especially strong in terms of windspeed, but the eTRaP data suggest that rainfall volumes are high (this is the precipitation forecast for the next 24 hours): The topography of this area is pretty mountainous, and the typhoon will pass close to Manila: The ground is likely to still be …

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29 October 2009

Typhoon Mirinae (Santi)

Click here for the latest update Once again Luzon in the Philippines is staring down the barrel of a powerful tropical cyclone, Typhoon Mirinae (known locally as Typhoon Santi). The storm is currently forecast to track across the southern part of Luzon on Friday evening:The 24 hour eTRaP precipitation forecast for the storm suggests that it is, as expected, inducing substantial amounts of precipitation along track: At the moment the …

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26 October 2009

Just when you thought it was safe to go out in Luzon…

…another potential typhoon appears (Tropical Storm 23): Unbelievable, although the track error this far out is of course very high.

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21 October 2009

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) continues to confound!

The behaviour of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast, primarily because its movement remains quite slow. The latest JTWC track forecast is still suggesting that the track will pass across the northern part of Luzon:However, the storm is now moving slowly and is likely to continue to do so, which makes forecasting its track much more difficult. The major concern is that the JTWC forecast above suggests …

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18 October 2009

Typhoon Lupit (Ramil) update

Latest update here According to the latest track maps, Typhoon Lupit (known locally as Typhoon Ramil in the Philippines) has been effectively stalled out to the east of Luzon for the last couple of days. It may look as if the storm is now heading away from Luzon, but current forecasts are that it will resume its westward movement in the next day or so:This is a very large and …

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16 October 2009

Another threat to the Philippines – Typhoon Lupit

Unfortunately things do not get any easier in the Philippines. Just as the clear-up from Typhoon Parma really gets under way (my tally of the landslide related deaths from this event is currently 346 people), another typhoon has formed. The current track forecasts suggest that there is a reasonable chance that it will pass over the northern part of Luzon once again: Note that the labels on the track give …

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1 October 2009

Typhoon Parma

Super typhoon Parma is now forecast to be heading for the northern part of the Philippines: Even worse than that, it is currently forecast to move rather slowly as it crosses Luzon, and then to hang around for a while. Note that forecasts this far in advance are quite uncertain, but if the current forecast track is maintained then things will get very nasty in the northern Philippines, given how …

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6 May 2009

Early May is the start of the landslide season

Whilst the transition towards the Northern Hemisphere summer is rather pleasant for many of us, the start of May also marks the start of the landslide season in the Northern Hemisphere. Of course the main problems kick in when the SW monsoon really gets going in Asia and the tropical cyclone season properly begins in the N. Pacific and N. Atlantic basins, but already there are clear signs that the …

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