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28 January 2015
Predicting the Weather is Tricky Work
This is a guest post by long-time Raleigh North Carolina Meteorologist (and friend) Greg Fishel of WRAL-TV During Tuesday’s 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. news, I talked about ensembles, how they outperformed the deterministic models for New York City last night and that they appear to be performing better for the local area with regard to a storm arriving on Sunday. First, what are ensembles and why are they so …
13 January 2014
Don’t Let The Thaw Fool You, The Revenge of The Polar Vortex May be Coming
Numerical weather models tend to become very unreliable beyond 5 or 6 days but meteorologists have discovered a trick that helps in long-range forecasting. At least a bit. We still cannot pin down what day a storm will hit at a particular place but we can get a good idea of whether or not the pattern will be warm/cold/dry or stormy. Here is the trick: Run the weather model multiple …
19 October 2013
Improving Weather Forecasts
I mentioned this subject in the previous post about my talk at the AGU in Washington, and now Rand Corporation has an interesting piece about the subject as well. I’m convinced that the biggest problem with weather forecasts to the public is not their accuracy, but in the delivery and interpretation. Educating meteorologists (and the public), is perhaps more important than actually improving our numerical weather prediction capability! The delivery …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.