4 August 2011

Two important ongoing tropical cyclone hazards

Posted by Dave Petley

Tropical cyclone activity finally appears to be recovering, and there are now four developed systems in operation across the globe.  Two of these are the potential cause for concern.  The larger is typhoon Muifa, which is out in the NW Pacific Ocean.  However, its forecast track has it strengthening and grazing the coast of eastern China over the next few days:

Current forecasts are that it will pass very close to Shanghai,and concern is already being expressed that the impacts could be substantial.  Its track thereafter is hard to predict, but it has the potential to bring heavy rainfall across a wide area.

On the other side of the world, Tropical Storm Emily is just crossing Haiti, which remains very vulnerable in the aftermath of the earthquake last year:

Although only a small storm by tropical cyclone standards, it has the potential to bring very heavy rainfall.  Once again the outcomes are unpredictable.  It remains very fortunate that Haiti has to date avoided a direct hit from a full strength Hurricane.