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1 September 2016

Look at The Cone- NOT the line Inside It

Hurricane Warnings are now posted for Florida, and concern is growing that a tropical storm will be moving up the East Coast beaches on Labor Day Weekend. I’ve been looking at different model runs tonight and there is actually a growing spread instead of agreement. NOAA runs a 12km model called the NAM (WRF core for geeks reading this) but they also run the model at a lower resolution a …

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27 May 2015

NOAA Issues 2015 Hurricane Season Forecast

You cannot learn to forecast something if you do not try, and testing predictions is what science is all about, so with that in mind, here is the hurricane forecast from NOAA for 2015. There is not a lot of skill in these forecasts, but this year we have some help. A growing El Nino (that looks like it may be a strong one) is the major factor in the …

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