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You are browsing the archive for confirmation bias Archives - AGU Blogosphere.

20 November 2017

Everyone Fights Confirmation Bias, but Science Teaches You How To Win the Battle.

Read the comments on any news story, and you get a free lesson on confirmation bias. This error in thinking strangles our ability to analyse information and make rational decisions. Doctors see it in patients that refuse vaccines for their children and waste money on homoeopathic¬†sugar water in fancy bottles. Vitamin salesman,¬†astrologers, and naturopaths rely on it for a living. It’s also responsible for the anger (rather than the thanks) …

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28 February 2014

Did The Farmers Almanac Winter Forecast Verify?? Nope!

I suspect a lot of folks think the Farmers Almanac winter forecast was right, and the reason they think so is because of CONFIRMATION BIAS. Science in many ways is a vaccine against confirmation bias. Read the link on confirmation bias, and my friend Jim Gandy’s guest post. Then you will understand something that those who read horoscopes, wear magic bracelets, or buy pills for their prostate (hawked by retired …

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