9 February 2011
A deadly heat wave is finally hindcasted
Posted by Michael McFadden
This image shows the differences in day time land surface temperatures collected in the two years by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite. (Credit: NASA)
In 2003, an extreme heat wave in Europe brought record temperatures that lasted throughout the summer and killed tens of thousands of people. In many regions, the heat wave led to massive forest fires and devastated agriculture. One study from the World Glacier Monitoring Service showed that glaciers in the Alps lost an average thickness of 3 meters during the heat.
Since then, a number of meteorological studies tried unsuccessfully to re-forecast – or forecast in hindsight – that summer’s extreme weather, but none were able to create a totally accurate model of the event. Scientists ultimately hope to be able to predict such scorchers before they hit.
A research team now says that it has succeeded in re-forecasting the range of conditions across Europe during the 2003 heat wave. The team includes scientists from the European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasting, or ECMWF, and the University of Oxford.
In a paper to be published by Geophysical Research Letters, the authors report that their model represents the first accurate simulation of not only the unusual heat, but also the observed rainfall and atmospheric circulation patterns. The study by ECMWF’s Antje Weisheimer and his colleagues finds that unusually hot and dry soil was the main driver of the heat wave.
Other models of the heat wave had assumed that unusual sea surface warmth played the most significant role in the heat wave, but the new research indicates that early-summer hot and dry soils were much more important. By using an advanced surface model developed by the European forecasting center, Weisheimer and his collaborators were able to accurately re-forecast the catastrophic weather.
“The new model version that we have tested … includes a better representation of the physical processes at the land surface, for example improved soil properties,” says Weisheimer. The improved soil model, called H-TESSEL, was used to reconstruct the hot and dry conditions that persisted from May throughout the summer. Re-forecast attempts using a previous model showed no sign of a heat wave whatsoever.
This improvement in understanding of the European heat wave might help forecasters better predict similar future events. However, Weisheimer cautions that advances in modeling don’t necessarily translate into a real-world warning of a heat wave.
“ECMWF’s forecast model is one of the most advanced” for forecasts looking several months ahead, says Weisheimer. “Whether the model is indeed able to forecast any future heat wave in a similar realistic manner as 2003 remains to be seen.”
– Eric Betz, contributing science writer.
Antje Weisheimer1, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Thomas Jung and T.N. Palmer (2011). On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe Geophysical Research Letters
GeoSpace is a blog on Earth and space science, managed by AGU’s Public Information staff. The blog features posts by AGU writers and guest contributors on all sorts of relevant science topics, but with a focus on new research and geo and space sciences-related stories that are currently in the news.
[…] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Am Geophysical Union, Jacquelyn Gill and terry, Kathleen O'Neil. Kathleen O'Neil said: RT @theAGU: New on GeoSpace – A deadly heat wave is finally hindcasted http://bit.ly/h5U8KM [2003 European heat wave] #GRLjrnl […]
[…] A deadly heat wave is finally hindcasted. I remember very well the European heatwave of the summer of 2003 – as a healthy 20-something the heat was a nice change from dreary rain, but the suffering of the sick and elderly in these uncommon conditions was in the news every day. So I enjoyed reading in this article on the AGU’s GeoSpace blog that scientists have managed to forecast-in-hindsight this exceptionally hot European summer and its geophysical drivers. […]
[…] Anne Jefferson describes recent research into the science and politics of the 2010 Pakistan floods.A deadly heat wave is finally hindcasted. I remember very well the European heatwave of the summer of 2003 – as a healthy 20-something […]
If unusually hot and dry soils were the driver of Europe’s 2003 summer’s heat wave, then what caused those conditions to the flatlander’s soils and melted the mountaineer’s ice caps?
Was your computer model including the fact that the irradiance from the Sun; at those moments; was at a high limit, which would have continued normally until the polarity reversal system began to lessen the proton particles in the upper corona? For the non-normal following few years the corona of the Sun presented us with an odd supply of irradiance every twenty-seven days for about a two day run. Of course, that event occurred after the 2003 summer heat wave in Europe. I mention it so one can realize that before the strange irradiance and visible radiation occurred there had to be a reason the Sun had physical changes to its output from the corona, and those reasons would have to be in effect prior to the physical solar output changes occurred, such as prior to the 2003 summer’s extreme heat to the plant growing soils, and that also affected the high altitude Alps’ mountain tops!
Of course, myself being only interested in several disciplines as opposed to those who deeply study only the one discipline of ‘Climate Change’, then my outlook has information not easily understood, nor willingly attempted to be understood by those who look down on others and refer to their proffered ideas as ‘nutty’. But, if it makes a satisfaction to act as so, then I can but assume that those who make remarks such as that do not really care to search all avenues in attempts to understand the mysteries of the moment. Pity!
I was asked; with no method provided for a reply; how was it that there is no model of my presentation about the solar changes as they affect our planet, and of another system that ‘could’ supply heat to Earth’s polar areas.
My reply is that, I am working on supplying a model that anyone above a grade seven education could easily comprehend, but each step requires deep and lengthy explanations for comprehension to be realized by those not in the sciences. That requires several articles and references be submitted.
Please print for all to read
Read well and study on your own after you have read this.
This is not a game or joke our Sun gives off a Solar Wind all day year round if you live in the State of Alaska you see it in the sky above what a sight it is going through our Earth’s Magnet Polls of the North and the South, North Poll. Its Called the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis. Soon you will see the Aurora Borealis further away from the Earth’s North and South Polls then ever before. Most All on Earth will see it. This Phenomena of Severe Disturbances in the sky Auroras will soon light the night sky like never before as it did in 1859 from the Geomagnetic Storm. Our Sun’s UV Rays will get stronger as each passing day go’s by, read and i will tell you why.
The Great big forest have be striped from most of the Earth for Greed of Money by the Wicked. The trees our are Main Source of Oxygen on this Plant.The Forest trees scrubs the Pollution out of the air and makes Oxygen from the rain and dirt that it grows in.The Pollution and CO2 Carbon Dioxide go into the Tree Bark as a shield from most bugs so they do not eat the tree.
Less Forest less Oxygen this is why the moon. That has no Oxygen is very cold on the side with out Sun Light, And hot as ever on the side with Sun Light. Way too cold and too hot to live there. With no blank of Oxygen to lessen or reduce the Sun’s UV Rays and Solar Wind they are deadly there on our Moon.
Every Mt. Climber and Aircraft Pilot knows the higher you go the thinner the Oxygen and colder it gets. Just spend a night on a Mt. top above 13,000 feet with no Sun Light and you will see or should i say feel the cold stinging any of your exposed skin. If you are a beginner at this sport it would be wise to stay below 10,00 feet. The Astronauts and the Cosmonauts and Fighter Pilots that i have been with for years know this very well, and the Radiation hazards to humans at High Altitudes.
Soon the Sun’s Solar Wind and UV rays will be way to strong for most to go out in the Sun light for even a short time. The Geomagnetic Storm to come and the Bad Weather Storms well you have not seen nothing yet and the Sea Level is Rising. The last 30 years On Earth we have broke all high temp records and the temp it is still going up.
All The Mountain Glaciers around the Earth are Melting Back and so are the ice sheets on Green Land and the North and South Polls. Less ice Greater is the absorption of Solar Radiation to the Ground and the Oceans. The Bad Weather Storms now are Babies compared to what is to come.
They will get even bigger and worse less Oxygen the more UV Rays to the Earth Surface and more Water molecules will evaporate and go up into the Earth’s Atmosphere. Less Oxygen the colder with out sun light and hotter with it. The Sky full of more water vapor molecules, more snow in the winter and more Flash Floods in the Summer.
If every living person on Earth were to plant a tree today we might have a chance. The Earth’s Atmosphere Blanket surrounding it protects life on Earth, as Our Lord and GOD will all that seek Him. Then it is written when the tree is full it is harvest time. All the Earth will someday burn away. This is all Foretold in the Bible Read it
The Lord’s little Helper
Paul Felix Schott KI4-AEX
[email protected]
P.S. 2 Peter 3:10 But the day of the Lord will come like a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a roar and the elements will be destroyed with intense heat, and the earth and its works will be burned up.