You are browsing the archive for weather forecasting Archives - Dan's Wild Wild Science Journal.
13 February 2021
Why Crazy Snow Forecast Go Viral on Social Media
There have been some rather outrageous snow forecasts floating around online this winter, and in the last few days, many have been from Oklahoma and Texas. Make no mistake about it there is a major snow event coming there, but TV forecasters in Oklahoma City posting snow totals 5 days out is certainly beyond the science (and perhaps a good definition for the word irresponsible). You tend to get strong …
15 June 2020
“Sharpie-Gate” Report says Two Top NOAA Officials Violated Scientific Integrity Guidelines
When NOAA leadership reprimanded the NWS office in Birmingham over a social media post, there was outrage among both government and private sector meteorologists. The reason, of course, it that the tweet was accurate even though it conflicted with a statement by the President. The NWS office had no knowledge of that statement, but without scientific doubt, the NWS office was correct. A NOAA report today found that this was …
27 January 2020
Should We Continue To Show Weather Radar To The Public on TV/Online?
I bet that headline got your attention, didn’t it? Before we go on, I’ll state up front that I think the answer is yes, but there is actually a decent argument to be made otherwise. When a cub TV reporter walked into the Weather Bureau office in Galveston, Texas on a muggy summer day in 1961, he saw something that few people had ever seen, a live weather radar image …
12 December 2019
NWS Makes Needed Changes to Flash Flood Warnings
What is the number one weather killer in the United States? Did you say tornadoes or hurricanes? If so, you are wrong, but don’t feel bad because everyone misses this question. What IS the main weather killer? In most years it is heat but close behind is floods and particularly flash floods. It seems that nearly every year brings a flood event with great damage and several fatalities. Then there’s …
10 September 2019
NWS Director and Chief Science Officer at NOAA Back NWS Hurricane Tweet; Who Wrote NOAA Friday Statement??
In a (not really) surprising turn of events, Monday, the Director of the National Weather Service Louis Uccinelli and NOAA’s chief science officer publicly backed a tweet issued by the NWS office in Birmingham on Sept. 1st. That tweet (which was scientifically accurate) told residents that Hurricane Dorian would not be a threat to Alabama. It was posted after their phones melted with rumors that Alabama would be hit much …
7 September 2019
Anger Among Public and Meteorologists after False Unsigned NOAA Statement
Last Sunday morning the forecasters at the NWS were giving a huge sigh of relief. It had been certain for at least two days that Hurricane Dorian would not be an issue there. The forecast cone from the NHC by midday Saturday continued to show Florida and areas up the Eastern Seaboard would be in the path of Dorian. Then the phones started ringing off the hook and social media …
1 August 2019
New Research Confirms it: The 7 Day Forecast Will Never Become a 17 Day Forecast
Despite the “horoscope” forecasts on Accuweather, most meteorologists will tell you that 7 days is about the extent of a reliable weather forecast. We can give you (at times, especially in the warm season) an idea of above or below normal out to maybe ten days but that is really pushing it. Beyond that, your best bet is to rely on the climatological averages (or add a degree …
16 July 2019
A 1954 Weathercast
Today was our 65th anniversary at WBOC TV here on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. During our anniversary special at 7 PM, I did the weather as it would have been done in 1954. No radar, no satellite, and the extended forecast? That was the day after tomorrow. Times have changed! I actually did the weather on a hand-drawn map for a couple of years at the start of my …
14 January 2019
Weather Satellites are Far More Vital Than You Think
I’ve written a lot here about weather satellites here, and how a decent forecast beyond three days would be impossible without them. They are indispensable to everyone from forecasters to firefighters to pilots. While you mainly see GOES (geostationary satellites) images on TV, I just finished a weathercast showing the image above from a satellite in Polar Orbit. I used it to show where the snow fell this weekend, but …
4 December 2018
Why Those Snow Forecasts Online are Likely Wrong
I go weak in the knees when I see a science info-graphic that explains something really well in one picture. The image above from the NWS Kansas City is a really good one about long-range weather forecasts. Many forecasters in the Mid-Atlantic region and the Midwest are dealing with a possible winter storm beginning this weekend. We cannot say much more than that right now, and it’s tough to explain to the public …
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.