12 October 2018
Some Hard Questions No One Is Asking About Michael
Posted by Dan Satterfield
This is what Michael did to the Gulf Coast of Florida. You can see more of this just-released satellite imagery here. Click image for high resolution.
Look at what Hurricane Michael did to Florida. This stretch of photos by the NY Times shows a mile of total destruction. I can guarantee you, every one of those homes in Mexico Beach, Florida were built since Hurricane Camille hit the Mississippi coast as a Cat 5 storm in 1969. I bet most were built since Frederick (a Cat 4 like Michael) roared up Mobile Bay in 1979.
So the question that no one has thought to ask yet.
Why were they there?
Why build homes this close to the water on a coast prone to intense hurricanes? How many lessons does it take from Mother Nature before someone catches on?
Yes, money talks. It talks to real estate developers, and realtors and property tax money talks to city and county governments as well.
Oh, it was their choice you say.
Fair enough.
Just one thing: I wonder if a taxpayer in Concordia, Kansas trying to make the rent this month thinks it’s right that they help fund federal low-interest loans to rebuild the infrastructure so million dollar homes and condos on the Gulf Coast can be rebuilt. They might have no problem with it, but someone should ask them.
Am I the first to bring this up???
Waters in the Gulf last week were several degrees warmer than the 30-year average and this played a major role in how strong Michael became. It also played a role in how fast the storm became a monster. It may have actually been a Cat 5 at landfall.
Then again, that Kansas taxpayer may have some responsibility here.
Yes, really.
It’s Kansas, and the voters there overwhelmingly voted for people who told them climate change was a hoax when every major science body on Earth says it’s not. They voted for the folks who told them what they wanted to be true, and they wanted climate change to be a hoax because anything else would be in sharp conflict with their worldview. That makes things very uncomfortable when you think hard about it in church on a Sunday morning.
Make no mistake, this hurricane was bigger, wetter, and stronger because we are heating up the planet. The greenhouse gases are warming the oceans and that warm water helped Michael to become a monster very quickly.
Democracies do not work when citizens fail to educate themselves. They most certainly fail to work when a majority of voters are willing to vote for people who tell them what they want to be true, rather than what is true. Democracies also fail when citizens no longer have the ability to research a subject and determine what’s real and what isn’t.
The founders of America knew this. This is why they opted for a republic rather than a direct democracy. This is also why libraries are important, so we probably should think about coughing up enough tax money to rebuild those. Even the libraries they built near the coast in a flood zone.
Times are desperate, and books and knowledge are important.
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.
I remember hurricane Agnes, that hit the panhandle area back I believe in 1970’s. My parents lived in Chipley, Fla. and it really did a lot of damage to their place, lost 2 outside buildings, and lots more. I couldn’t get a phone call to them, not even the police, it was so scary for me at that time. I did finally get them and they said it was really
bad.
The answer? 1) take climate change seriously. Tax carbon and greenhouse gases at a high enough rate to discourage their use worldwide; 2) take land in hurricane zones by eminent domain, turn it into parkland, watersheds, and wildlife habitat; 3) if any redevelopment is made after a hurricane, make ample flood insurance mandatory, with loss of title being the penalty for non-payment.
Dan for President! Or another rational, logical science leaning mind devoid of the usual political greed ‘n graft ego…
Hell, i’d vote for ya!–and i live in Canada!! Like yourself i have, for more than 25 yrs., watched the world’s environment decay with everyone watching. I’ve been in arguments with climate deniers who shut up fast when i quote statistics and they can’t prove…and the key word is PROVE…me wrong.
Yep…every year the situation degrades but does it EXPONENTIALLY. Like a lifer smoker who denies they have cancer……
Very well put. As usual you are raising the bar to an uncomfortable level for the reality denial crowd. Please continue with the good fight.
Once again Dan you do an excellent job of transitioning from Meteorologist to Philosopher to a very responsible citizen. Congrats. I agree when will we stop this insanity of rebuilding what should not be rebuilt. I was interested in seeing pictures of damage to the newer homes built on piling 1p or 12 feet off the ground. They are not an answer…nothing is because it would be prohibitively expensive to engineer & build something that can.
Preaching to the choir, Daniel. At 68, I fear we are already too late. I especially liked this:
Democracies do not work when citizens fail to educate themselves. They most certainly fail to work when a majority of voters are willing to vote for people who tell them what they want to be true, rather than what is true. Democracies also fail when citizens no longer have the ability to research a subject and determine what’s real and what isn’t.
Climate isn’t the only loser here.
From Pielke, et. al, 1999 Thirty Years After Hurricane Camille: Lessons Learned, Lessons Lost
9. Better knowledge of hurricanes, by itself, is generally not sufficient for behavior change.
Just because society has “learned a lesson” does not mean that the lesson will be implemented. Indeed, many of the lessons to be gleaned from the experience with Hurricane Camille were also learned in the aftermath of Andrew. Lessons gleaned from experience with past disasters are central to proactive action. Without fail, in the aftermath of every hurricane’s impact, general lessons for coping with hurricanes are drawn, but typically are soon forgotten, only to have to be relearned by another community (and sometimes in the same community) in the aftermath of the next hurricane. The difficulty in learning lessons is vividly underscored, as in the aftermath of Camille when land developers and home owners rebuilt in vulnerable locations. One element in motivating proactive action with respect to hurricanes is a solid foundation of knowledge of the lessons of experience. Of course, also necessary is the dedication of people and communities who have the foresight and will to act before a storm strikes.
The final lesson is that “society knows, in large part, how to respond to hurricanes.” One of the most frustrating aspects of society’s response to hurricanes (and natural hazards more generally) is the realization that in many cases society currently knows enough to take effective actions to reduce its vulnerabilities. Hurricane Camille revealed many lessons that are as important today as they were 30 years ago. As the nation continues to increase its vulnerability to hurricanes it will be more and more important to take the knowledge that has been gained from research and experience and to turn it into practical action. As Camille showed, the stakes are high.
As to voting, I doubt that the planet heating up is going to determine how people vote. As to building on the beach, government insurance should not cover, period. If the people wealthy enough to buy that kind of property want to cover any storm losses, they need to buy said coverage in the private marketplace.
I just do not see how we can change the fact that we burn oil, gas and coal in any kind of timely manner that might mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases. We can’t keep all the different countries from killing each other, let alone agree on policy. We need to plan on how to cope with what is coming, because trying to stop this problem is like trying to stop a freight train with a VW microbus.
I’ll vote Democrat in November but I doubt the folks in Kansas will.
Great article Dan. I passed this on on Facebook with a reminder to my friends of your time at WHNT. Hope this finds you well and still cutting holes in the sky.
Linda & Reynolds Duncan
On top of federal tax dollars going to pay for this, it is highly likely that insurance premiums across the board will be going up as well. It’s like we are paying twice…
We need more intelligent design in planning and architecture. If those houses were geodesic domes then they would maybe be missing a few shingles instead a pile of rubble. Houses that could float in flood prone areas. Natural materials like hemp-crete that if does become rubble can be disposed of and rejuvenate land instead of destroying more land.
When those people in Kansas have tornadoes is it fair the coastal citizens tax dollars help rebuild? Or east coast citizens paying for west coast earthquakes. It’s nature we are all in it and are all affected.
So If I build in an area that is subject to severe flooding that will ruin my $250K home, everyone else should pay for my insurance and if I do not have insurance, the public should replace my home?
Seriously??
I suspect you are one of the very few people who think some guy living paycheck t paycheck in Wisconsin should pay for the insurance on a 3 million dollar beach front home in Florida. LOL
I guess the reason is the same why people repeatedly build their houses on the top of an active volcano (Kilauea). A bug in the human psyche?