11 October 2016

Where The Rain Fell, and Where It’s Not for Many Weeks

Posted by Dan Satterfield

The Deep South is in the midst of a brutal drought, with levels reaching severe to exceptional over parts of Georgia and Alabama, while not far away in Eastern Georgia, extending all the way to the Delmarva Peninsula, the exact opposite is the case. Look at the rainfall total maps below and you can see just how much rain has fallen from Matthew. In the Delmarva area, the week before Matthew brought 10-14 inches of rain and then Matthew brought another 3-8 inches. Snow Hill Maryland has had 21.9 inches in the past 18 days! 

The rainfall plots below are courtesy of Andrew McCormick, my weather intern from Salisbury University. These maps are based on MRMS data, which uses radar and gauges to produce the best possible rainfall data.


Click images for much larger version.



Now, look how dry it is in the parts of East TN, Georgia and Alabama:





The upper level ridge that has brought the extreme dry weather to this area is likely to hold through the weekend. There are some signs of a weak pattern change that may bring some rain to the area, but the relief maybe slow in coming. The map below shows the expected rainfall for the area through Sunday, based on the NOAA GFS model. The usually more reliable Euro model is even drier.