26 May 2016

Tropical Storm For Memorial Day? Maybe

Posted by Dan Satterfield

image-download (1)

From NASA Terra Satellite today. This area of disturbed weather may develop into a rare May tropical cyclone.

A tropical storm making landfall on the U.S. coast on Memorial Day weekend is almost unheard of, and I think it may have never happened before. It might this year though, and the record warm oceans are playing a role. An area of disturbed weather persists in the western part of the Caribbean Sea and the usually reliable European Center medium range forecast model, is bringing a tropical storm into the Carolina Coast late Sunday. It’s way too soon to say where this system will end up, or even if it will become a tropical storm, but the waters under it are warm enough for development, and the Hurricane Center issued a special outlook about it today. They’re also sending a recon plane to take atmospheric measurements around it on Friday.

Here below is the update from the NHC in Coral Gables,Fl.

255 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The low pressure area centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas
has an elongated circulation, although the shower activity has
been increasing during the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for a tropical or subtropical
cyclone to form on Friday or Saturday while the system moves
west-northwestward or northwestward toward the southeastern United
States coast. With the Memorial Day weekend approaching, all
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate this low on
Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
disturbance will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Avila

The image below is from the NOAA GFS model and it does show a low pressure system on the Carolina coast on Sunday. The Euro model is much stronger with this system and it usually is the superior model in cases like this.