8 March 2016

South Central U.S. Is About to Get Very Wet and Quite Stormy

Posted by Dan Satterfield


Numerical models show a strong jet stream coming from almost due south across Texas by later Wednesday. This will set up the region for heavy rains and severe storms.

There is also likely to be a strong low level jet of deep tropical moisture, and model guidance is indicating the potential for 3 day rain totals of over 7 or 8 inches in some areas.

The precipitable w

The precipitable water product off the NAM (NOAA short-range) Model, indicates a layer of deep and wet tropical sir moving northward into the Miss. Valley by mid-week.

These 4 panesl are from the N

These 4 panels are from the NAM 12 KM model. It is showing an almost certain heavy rain/severe weather event. Click for a larger version.Ctsy. Penn State Uni.

The wind shear is also likely to be favorable for intense thunderstorms as far north as Missouri with tornadic storms also possible, due to increased low-level wind shear. All in all, it looks like the first major Plains severe weather outbreak is on the way, along with flooding rains. You can count on this storm system to make news and it will start tomorrow afternoon. This kind of event is not atypical of a strong El Nino, and it is the same storm that brought heavy snow to California’s Sierra Mountains over the weekend.

Forecasting this storm will be interesting, and with the ECMWF model going to a much higher resolution Tuesday, it will give us a chance to see what the upgrades in the euro model are like as it moves eastward into the Deep South later int he week..