25 August 2015
Wind shear has pretty much put an end to what was Hurricane Danny but we may have new trouble on the way. A strong tropical wave in the Atlantic is showing signs of becoming a depression and numerical guidance is indicating that it will likely become a tropical storm. Since winds are already gusting to near tropical storm force, once a closed circulation appears, the storm will likely be upgraded straight to a Tropical Storm.The name will be Erica, and while there is some dry air around and light wind shear, this system has a decent chance of threatening the Caribbean in the next 4-5 days.
The HWRF model which has a growing reputation as an excellent tropical model is indicating that we will have Hurricane Erica as soon as Thursday morning to the NE of the windward islands. Beyond 72 hours the track becomes far less certain.