20 August 2015
Latest water vapor wavelength IR images show a large area of rather dry air ahead of Danny, and it looks like this will continue to impact the tropical cyclone, as it approaches the Windward islands early next week. By Sunday, the storm will also begin to run into more wind shear in the troposphere, and this will (at the least) keep it from strengthening as well. The Hurricane WRF model now shows weakening (see below), and this is supported by the satellite data today.
There is a bit more spread among the dynamical and ensemble model solutions today with more of a hint that Danny will track north of Puerto Rico. If it is a weak tropical storm though, this is not a serious issue. There is little reason to worry yet, but I’ll post another update late in the weekend. A warning to ignore any predictions about this storm beyond 5 days. No knowledgeable synoptic forecaster will make one publicly.