18 August 2015
Every 6 years there is the chance that I get a hurricane named after me,and this year is looking good. Tropical Storm Danny has formed and is slowly strengthening. Model guidance is all in rather good agreement, especially the dynamical models that tend to have the best skill. Wind shear is strong to the north of the system, but it will likely stay south of the shear until it approaches the windward islands early next week. With the strong El Nino, the wind shear is rather high across the Atlantic basin, but Danny will likely be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Caribbean. There is some dry and dusty Saharan air to the north of the system and this may also slow the intensification somewhat.
Below is the sea surface temperature anomaly. TS Danny will stay over rather warm water for the rest of the week, and will most likely slowly strengthen.