16 March 2011
Updated Radiation Trajectory for Fukushima
Posted by Dan Satterfield
Forecast from NOAA Hysplit model (Using GFS NWP Model) for a parcel of air at 75 and 350M above the plant. Initial time for the model is 12GMT Wed. 16 March.
Here is the most recent trajectory forecast for air above the damaged nuclear plant in Japan. The model guidance continues to indicate an offshore flow for the next 48 hours. Experts in the USA are recommending that folks within 75 km of the plant move outside that zone.
Will update these a couple of times a day as long as the situation warrants…
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.
Here’s a complimentary site illustrating the probability of air from Fukushima making it to selected Japanese cities: http://japan.sharedair.org
thnx!
Dan, are there any airflow models that combine airflow data with the half-life decay of different probable isotopes? My understanding is that the problematic form of Iodine decays well before reaching the Americas (though unsure about exposure to Guam and Hawaii), and the Cesium persists well after circling the earth a few times.
Also, for those of us with family & friends in Japan, here’s a google map that helps explain the 75km recommended zone. It is still well away from Tokyo. http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216386949281368528973.00049ea1ead8ecd245e94
I’ve looked for them myself. Saw one on a BBC report but could not find it online. That makes sense though with cesium half life at about 30 days.
Just in case any other readers out there have family in Japan and/or Pacific, there are some radiation simulations out there. This site (about 1 week old) is in German but the movie gets the point across:
http://www.bgr.bund.de/cln_151/nn_322882/DE/Themen/Seismologie/Atmosphaer-Transport/Besondere_20Ereignisse/atm__fukushima__inhalt.html?__nnn=true