16 March 2011
Updated Radiation Trajectory for Fukushima
Posted by Dan Satterfield
Here is the most recent trajectory forecast for air above the damaged nuclear plant in Japan. The model guidance continues to indicate an offshore flow for the next 48 hours. Experts in the USA are recommending that folks within 75 km of the plant move outside that zone.
Will update these a couple of times a day as long as the situation warrants…
Here’s a complimentary site illustrating the probability of air from Fukushima making it to selected Japanese cities: http://japan.sharedair.org
Dan, are there any airflow models that combine airflow data with the half-life decay of different probable isotopes? My understanding is that the problematic form of Iodine decays well before reaching the Americas (though unsure about exposure to Guam and Hawaii), and the Cesium persists well after circling the earth a few times.
Also, for those of us with family & friends in Japan, here’s a google map that helps explain the 75km recommended zone. It is still well away from Tokyo. http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=216386949281368528973.00049ea1ead8ecd245e94
I’ve looked for them myself. Saw one on a BBC report but could not find it online. That makes sense though with cesium half life at about 30 days.
Just in case any other readers out there have family in Japan and/or Pacific, there are some radiation simulations out there. This site (about 1 week old) is in German but the movie gets the point across: