10 August 2010
Tropical Storm Forming Off of Florida? (Update: Tropical Depression 5 Now)
Posted by Dan Satterfield
NASA Modis image of tropical disturbance off of Florida. Pressures are dropping and upper level winds are favourable for development.
There are strong signs that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf is beginning to get organized today. Pressures are dropping and there seems to be a circulation already present. I suspect the the folks at the NHC in Miami will begin advisories on it later today.
Tropical Cyclone heat potential is based on the depth of the warm water, not just the surface sea water temp.
If it makes it to tropical storm strength it will be named Danielle.
While it is a bit early to talk about the track, the GFDL model is indicating that a landfall somewhere around Louisiana or Mississippi is possible late Friday night. Keep in mind, that the steering currents are very weak and this could change dramatically.
HOW STRONG COULD IT GET?
Could this system reach hurricane status? Yes, but it would be tough to get that strong by landfall. The Gulf is very warm but the tropical cyclone heat potential is not overly impressive. Still it is near the Gulf loop current and that may be helpful.
A good tropical storm may actually be quite helpful to farmers in the southeast who are suffering through an intense heatwave and drought. It’s 37.5C here in Huntsville as I type this.
That’s 100°F on the old scale.
More soon…
Dan
Dan Satterfield has worked as an on air meteorologist for 32 years in Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama. Forecasting weather is Dan's job, but all of Earth Science is his passion. This journal is where Dan writes about things he has too little time for on air. Dan blogs about peer-reviewed Earth science for Junior High level audiences and up.
Dan,
I saw a shot this morning from EUMETSAT that showed some very impressive Low’s coming across Africa. It’s gonna get interesting over the couple of weeks!