10 August 2010

Tropical Storm Forming Off of Florida? (Update: Tropical Depression 5 Now)

Posted by Dan Satterfield

NASA Modis image of tropical disturbance off of Florida. Pressures are dropping and upper level winds are favourable for development.

There are strong signs that the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf is beginning to get organized today. Pressures are dropping and there seems to be a circulation already present. I suspect the the folks at the NHC in Miami will begin advisories on it later today.

Tropical Cyclone heat potential is based on the depth of the warm water, not just the surface sea water temp.

If it makes it to tropical storm strength it will be named Danielle.

While it is a bit early to talk about the track, the GFDL model is indicating that a landfall somewhere around Louisiana or Mississippi is possible late Friday night. Keep in mind, that the steering currents are very weak and this could change dramatically.


Could this system reach hurricane status? Yes, but it would be tough to get that strong by landfall. The Gulf is very warm but the tropical cyclone heat potential is not overly impressive. Still it is near the Gulf loop current and that may be helpful.

A good tropical storm may actually be quite helpful to farmers in the southeast who are suffering through an intense heatwave and drought. It’s 37.5C here in Huntsville as I type this.

That’s 100°F on the old scale.

More soon…